Providence Preview: On the Road Again…

After Butler’s first win, many are speculating whether or not this will help the Bulldogs go on a winning streak and be able to claw its way back into the conference race. If they are going to start in that direction though, they are going to have to do something that they still haven’t managed to do in the Big East, and that is win on the road. It won’t be easy as they’ll first travel to Providence, who has only lost one home game all year, a double overtime loss to Seton Hall to start Big East play. After that loss and a blowout 30 point loss to Villanova, the Friars have really turned things around, winning 3 straight, including a dominating 13 point victory over Creighton. Despite having lost Kris Dunn to injury and 4 star Freshman Brandon Austin to transfer, Ed Cooley has gotten his team right back into the thick of the Big East race. If Butler is going to pull out the win, they are going to have to follow my keys to victory.

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Providence Friars 13-5 (3-2)
Where: Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI
When: Tuesday, January 21 @ 9pm
TV: Fox Sports 1
Radio: 1070AM

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Control the defensive glass – Providence is the best offensive rebounding team so far in Big East play, gathering in 34.1% of their misses. While Butler hasn’t been dominant on the defensive glass so far in Big East play, in order to pull out the road victory, they must limit the Friar’s second chance opportunities as much as possible.

2. Hit their free throws – Let’s face it, Butler was fortunate to win Saturday against Marquette despite shooting 15 for 29 from the free throw line. While the biggest culprit in their troubles at the line has been Khyle Marshall, they simply will have a really tough time winning games on the road if they aren’t able to maximize their opportunities at the foul stripe. Currently Butler is 9th in the conference in free throw shooting percentage, but they have had really good games at the line against Villanova (17-19) and Georgetown (25-33), so it can be done.

3. Defend without fouling – Providence creates a large portion of its offense at the free throw line. They are 47th in the country at the percentage of their points that are generated at the free throw line, and as a team have the top ranked free throw rate in the conference and are second in the conference at converting their opportunities at the free throw line, shooting 76.2% as a team from the foul line. This is actually down from their overall free throw shooting percentage of 79.6% on the season. If Butler wants to keep some of their keys guys on the floor as well, they need to be able to defend guys like Cotton, Harris, Batts and Henton without sending them to the foul line.

4. Go inside – Unlike most nights in the Big East, Butler has an opportunity for their interior scorers to make some significant contributions. Providence is ranked 7th in the Big East at defending shots inside the arc. Unless Desrosiers is in the game, Providence doesn’t have a reliable guy to consistently defend the rim. If they can have success in the paint, that should help open things up on the perimeter for Brown and Dunham to operate more effectively. If not, it could be a long night.

So who should Butler fans be on the lookout for on Tuesday?

CottonBryce Cotton – 6’1, 165 lbs SR G averaging 20.4 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.2 spg – He is the engine that makes the Friar’s offense go, taking 28.2% of the team’s shots while he’s on the floor. He is jet quick, which helps him get around most anyone that attempts to guard him. He’s not particularly dangerous either outside the arc (31.9%) or inside the arc (45.7%), and has been even less efficient during conference play. Where Cotton really can hurt you is by using his quickness to get to the line, where he shoots 84.8%. He’s also the team’s best distributor, and has the 28th best assist rate in the nation. He also takes very good care of the ball, with a 12.5% turnover rate. Slowing him down will be priority one for Butler.

HarrisTyler Harris – 6’9, 215 lbs SO F averaging 13.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 spg – Much like Kameron Woods, Harris is relied on to do a lot of things for Providence. On the year, he has been solid from inside the arc (50%) and a threat, though not typically a reliable one from deep. However, during the conference schedule, he has really upped his game from beyond the arc and is shooting 37.5% from deep during Big East play, though he takes less than 2 three point attempts per game. He is also good at getting to the foul stripe and can make you pay once he’s there, where he shoots 84.5% on the season. He does tend to turn the ball over more than what Friars fans would like to see. He is also a good offensive rebounder.

HentonLaDontae Henton – 6’6, 215 lbs JR F averaging 13.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.8 spg, 1.6 apg – On the season, he has been their most consistent deep threat, shooting 37.9% from 3 on the year, though he only takes 32% of his shots from deep, and hasn’t made the most of his shots inside the arc, shooting 44.4%. Much like Cotton and Harris, he can make you pay by getting to the foul stripe and hitting shots from there, where he’s shooting 83.3% on the season. He is also the best on the ball defender for the Friars, with the highest steal rate on the team. He also takes good care of the ball and is the second best defensive rebounder on the team behind Desrosiers.

BattsKadeem Batts – 6’9, 245 lbs SR F averaging 12.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 apg – He takes 25% of the team’s shots while he’s on the floor, which hasn’t necessarily been their most efficient form of offense thus far. He has made teams pay for leaving him wide open on the perimeter, shooting 45.5%, but he only has taken 11 attempts from deep so far this year. Inside the arc, he only shoots 42.6%, but he has the top free throw rate among their starting group, and he’s very solid from the foul line, shooting 74.2%. He’s the team’s best offensive rebounder and is very solid on the glass on the defensive end of the floor as well.

Other Main Guys:
FortuneJosh Fortune – 6’5, 205 lbs SO G averaging 6.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2 apg
DerosiersCameron Desrosiers – 7’0, 250 lbs JR F averaging 4.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.6 bpg
BancroftTed Bancroft – 6’6, 215 lbs SR G averaging 1 rpg
GoldsbroughLee Goldsbrough – 6’9, 230 lbs SR F averaging 1.1 rpg

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