19-20 Rotation, Keys, Predictions

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by thebulldogs, May 1, 2019.

  1. troggy

    troggy Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,012
    By the way, has the BPI formula changed? It used to have an element of recruiting rankings and coaching success in the formula. That stuff has no business in the committee room when they're making selections.
     
  2. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $13,383
    Pretty much. With it being Butler? Not sure but if Butler were to win the big east and the big east keeps grading strong...it's possible for sure. Pretty fun to think about, especially with teams like Kentucky and
    We'd all die. But we'd die happy.
     
    ButlerNut likes this.
  3. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,253
    Essentially, yes.

    I was doing some thinking today, and I *think* 13-5 and winning the Big East Tournament is what it’ll take to get a 1 seed. 28-6 against this schedule is probably 1 seed worthy. Tall task, no doubt. But it’s not out of the realm with the way things are going. And I do think 13-5 and 2 wins in BET gets a sniff for a 1.


    More likely is 12-6 and 1 or 2 wins in the BET. That’d put them at around 25-8 or 26-7. That’s probably a 2, 3 at the worst.

    I think our downside is around 10-8 with a first round exit in BET. That’s 22-10 and probably a 5-6 seed. (Example: Miss St was 12-1 against a good non con last year, went 10-8 in SEC, finished 23-10, and was a 5 seed.)
     
    NCJon, troggy and znelson15 like this.
  4. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $17,289
    Lol I don’t even party. Dead serious... I very rarely drink.

    I’m quite boring, actually.

    I did go to this secret bar in Toronto last May. It’s like a speakeasy behind a fake bookshelf door. I met Miss Universe Canada there. Holy hell was she stunning...

    And a Vegas club from time to time when there for work when someone else is paying.
     
    ButlerNut likes this.
  5. znelson15

    znelson15 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,443
    Overall the way I expected and thought this season was going to go I would take any of those scenarios happily

    Still blows my mind we can even talk about this


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    NCJon and Hinkle like this.
  6. TheDawgDub95

    TheDawgDub95 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $2,522
    It's so interesting. This time, last year, I thought we were going to be good last year and a top 15 team this year. Then Florida part II and the 2nd half of the Big East season happened. Expectations turned into fear about what this year would be. Then we get a really nice 2020 class and have this start. Right back to believing Butler can become a perennial top 15 program, over time, including this year.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    znelson15 and NCJon like this.
  7. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $8,420
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2019
    Shimmy, Sidd Finch, ButlerNut and 3 others like this.
  8. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $8,599
    Sidd Finch likes this.
  9. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,253
    I've posted several times in the last few weeks lamenting the portion of FGs Butler's defense surrenders that are 3 point attempts. What is also important, however, are where the non-3-point FG attempts are coming from. Ideally, you would force offenses to use a high portion of their shots on two point jumpers (the lowest value shot, in terms of expected points), and to get as few attempts as possible at the rim (the highest value shot, in terms of expected points).

    Butler's defense is very attractive from this standpoint. (This data isn't available on KenPom; I pulled it from hoop-math.com, in case anyone is wondering). The short summary is that Butler is doing a great job keeping teams away from the rim and forcing tougher two point attempts.

    Big East rankings, portion of FG attempts at the rim (defense):
    1. Butler - 28.9%
    2. Creighton - 30.4
    3. Georgetown - 35.5
    4. Marquette - 35.6
    5. DePaul - 36.5
    6. Xavier - 36.5
    7. St. John's - 36.9
    8. Seton Hall - 37.1
    9. Providence - 39.2
    10. Villanova - 41.6


    Big East rankings, portion of FG attempts that are two-point jumpers (defense):

    1. Butler - 31.6%
    2. Creighton - 31.2
    3. Marquette - 30.7
    4. Seton Hall - 29
    5. Xavier - 28.7
    6. Villanova - 24
    7. Providence - 23.2
    8. DePaul - 23.1
    9. Georgetown - 22.8
    10. St. John's - 21.3


    Last year, Butler gave up 34.4% of its shots at the rim, and opponents' FG% at the rim was better too. I'd imagine this improvement is mostly due to having an actual PF this season.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
    troggy, bwesson15, ButlerNut and 4 others like this.
  10. Tentozen

    Tentozen Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,578
    Don’t approve of the 4 seed if this happens.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
  11. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $15,919
    Can you compare these Butler percentages to Virginia which is who both Painter andDrew made comparisons?
     
  12. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,253
    Virginia defense:
    27.5% of shots surrendered are at the rim
    24% of shots surrendered are two point jump shots.

    Every year, Virginia gives up a lot of three point attempts. But they're exceptional in that it's well established that the reason they give up so many three attempts is because everything else is so locked down teams routinely have to heave it from deep to beat the shot clock.

    Other elite defenses' portion of FG attempts at rim (this season):
    Kansas - 27.3
    Louisville - 26.4
    Ohio State - 26.5

    Sensing a pattern?

    One notable exception is Duke, which gives up a whopping 47.6% of FG attempts at the rim and still has an elite defense. But this is by design; I've talked on here before about how Coach K prioritizes - above all else - preventing 3 point attempts (they routinely rank near the top of all college basketball in lowest 3PA allowed).
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
    Sidd Finch likes this.
  13. BulldogsAllTheWay

    BulldogsAllTheWay Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,112
    I kind of expect us to be like Purdue next season. Lights out defensively but we’ll likely struggle offensively. Losing McD and Baldwin will hurt.

    I can’t remember where I saw it but Thompson said something to the effect of Battle being a great on ball defender in the future. Wonder if he really believes that.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  14. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $15,919
    Purdue crushed Virginia by shooting like 50% from three.
     
  15. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $13,383
    I feel like from what I've seen and I really get into his play in game because I was so high on him. But, he's definitely getting better.

    I think next year you put either Battle or Scooby on the wing, Tate and Thompson in the back court and Golden/Nze front court with Coles as the 3rd big.
     
  16. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,253
    And this year, Purdue generally sucks at shooting. There are always anomalies. And they don’t really mean anything.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  17. Eric

    Eric Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,547
    You think Tucker declares?
     
  18. FRENCH DAWG

    FRENCH DAWG Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $542
    No.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
    godogs91 likes this.
  19. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $13,383
    If he's here I think LaVall loves him as the 6th man to come in at sf or 2 guard. If you notice he's never in anything more than warm up pants (sometimes not those) when the game starts, he's knows he first guy up. I think LaVall likes that option and having that ace card to play.
     
  20. Eric

    Eric Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,547
    I think that's a this year thing, he's behind a couple of Seniors at the 2 and 3, without being obviously better than either. Unless 2 of Battle, Tate, and Scooby are better from the jump, I think he's the starter, and probably the first option scorer.
     

Share This Page