2017 Bracketology

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by ButlerNut, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. thevinrod

    thevinrod Active Member VIP Member

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  2. MilkSteak

    MilkSteak Well-Known Member

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    Wisconsin doesn't scare me. They haven't really done anything against the top of the Big Ten. I agree with the rest of that list.

    Florida scares me. A lot. They're gonna get a high seed obviously, but I think everyone is sleeping on them.
     
  3. JCA 2013

    JCA 2013 Active Member

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    I would take Michigan off this list as far as scaring me. As I've mentioned before I am a Michigan fan by birth. While they are not a good match up for us, because they shoot the 3 well from all five spots, they are in my opinion Downy soft. I think our toughness and physicality would eat them alive. For my sake, I'm hoping to avoid that matchup for my own sake/sanity.
     
  4. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Not sure if you meant initial games or what, but West Virginia and their press scares me.

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  5. MIBulldog

    MIBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    After last night's win, TeamRankings.com has us as a 2 seed, and 5th overall, behind Gonzaga, Kansas, Nova & UNC. (If I'm reading this right) I don't know how accurate/reliable that is, but the site also gives us an 18% chance at a #1 seed. Who here would have thought we'd even be thinking it was a possibility back in November??
     
  6. noltar

    noltar Well-Known Member

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    I'd throw Purdue on that list. I know Butler has had good success against them in the last few years, but there are definitely other teams I'd rather see in a second round or later matchup.
     
  7. MilkSteak

    MilkSteak Well-Known Member

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  8. SpartanDawgs

    SpartanDawgs Well-Known Member

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    Talking about teams that I do not want in our Region. Wouldn't want to see those teams on the road to the final four. Purdue is interesting. Haas is not atheltic and tough enough to scare me so it all depends on what Swanigan would do. PJ Thompson as well. Everyone else, I think we have an answer for.

    W. Virginia do not know much about them but they did seem pretty athletic and lengthy watching some highlights recently.
     
  9. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

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    It is also based upon future matchups and favorability to win those games. It basically has Butler losing in the BE finals, which they are saying, with how other teams are projected to finish, they will end up as the team with the highest probability of a #2 seed, which puts them at the fifth overall seed.

    I hate predictive analytics, but it is pretty cool to see that.


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  10. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    Correct. I have to believe the 18% chance at a #1 seed is a little optimistic though. There is no chance Butler catches Villanova, Gonzaga, or Kansas. I think the final 1 seed is within reach, but Butler probably has to win out to get it.

    The 2-5 seeds are pretty tightly packed right now. The difference between #2 Kansas and #4 Arizona in the Sagarin ELO rankings (rankings for seeding that don't factor margin of victory) is 4 ELO points. If you go another 4 ELO rating points down that takes you to #19 Wisconsin. Another 4 points only goes to #24 SMU. Basically my point right now is there a lot of opportunity to move around between that last 1 seed and a 5 seed. A single win or loss can have a huge impact on seeding where Butler is right now. Sagarin has them #10 right now, or the 2nd 3 seed.


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  11. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

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    Jerry Palm still has us as a 4 after his new bracket this morning.

    I am thinking he hasn't used his own team comparison tool for a while with Butler and some of his 3 seeds. He is giving too much weight to the ISU loss in my opinion.
     
  12. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Lunardi has us as a 3 today.

    Also, Bracketologists really seem to want us to play Valpo in the first round.
     
  13. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

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  14. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Which is understandable as a philosophy, but obviously not the way the committee is leaning this year. JP's predictions might be more off than most years.
     
  15. SpartanDawgs

    SpartanDawgs Well-Known Member

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  16. oldstyle1908

    oldstyle1908 Active Member

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    Can someone explain to me why they try to pair Indiana schools in the early rounds.
     
  17. Dawgs4Life

    Dawgs4Life Active Member

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  18. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

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    Last night was a great win, but I think it showed, while better than last year's team against the press, we are still vulnerable against full court pressure. And before anyone says, "if the refs had not swallowed their whistles, we would have done fine," refs seem to allow WAY more contact when a team is pressing than almost any other situation. I'm not sure why that is, and I don't have any metric to prove what I'm saying, but my eyes tell me that's how they call it (or more accurately, don't call it).
     
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  19. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    I agree, but there is also a big difference between a team pressing down 7-10 in the final 2 minutes with fouls to give and a 1st half press.

    Also let's not forget how valuable Chrabascz is against a press. His ability as a big to catch down the floor and attack with the dribble makes life tough on defenses.


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  20. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

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    I still want no part of Florida St's athleticism...I also want nothing to do with Arizona with Trier back and revenge...and want nothing to do with UNC or Kansas's Josh Jackson
     

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