2017 Bracketology

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by ButlerNut, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,061
    Agree 1,000,000 percent. **** Boeheim. Their RPI is like 85... they have no business being anything more than a 5 seed in the NIT
     
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  2. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,959
    Whereas Illinois State's is 35. I know RPI is far from the best/only metric the committee uses, but come on. I'm not naive, I know the NCAA wants to sell tickets and get TV ratings, but if Cuse gets in and Illinois St. doesn't, man that would piss me off.
     
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  3. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,138
    Seems pretty simple to me: If Syracuse gets to play NCAAT games in the Carrier Dome, they belong in; otherwise, no.
     
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  4. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,959
    Seriously. 2-11 away from the dome. 2-11! Over half of their wins (10/18) are against RPI 100+ teams!
     
  5. wazthree

    wazthree Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,931
    They still lost @home by 33 to St. John's and to Georgetown.
     
  6. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,609
    Why the hand wringing? If last year's travesty of a "last 4 in" didn't make it clear enough, Syracuse will get in (and maybe some head scratcher like Tulsa last year) at the expense of Illinois State (Monmouth last year)
     
  7. BURph92

    BURph92 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,631
    Yeah, I don't think any of the bracket gurus had Tulsa in the field last year. Who knows, maybe someone like Iowa will show up in this year's field.


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    Last edited: Mar 12, 2017
  8. BURph92

    BURph92 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,631
  9. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,070
    As discussed, we are almost assuredly a 4 seed. If the Committee wants to disregard bad losses, we could conceivably be the last 3, but I find it highly unlikely.

    As a result, likely 13 seed opponents include:

    Vermont: KenPom 63 (O: 61; D: 66)
    Princeton: KenPom 62 (O: 92; D: 45)
    E. Tenn. St.: KenPom 64 (O: 109; D: 44)
    Bucknell : KenPom 80 (O: 85; D: 89)
    New Mexico St.: KenPom 88 (O: 72; D: 133)
    Winthrop: KenPom 112 (O: 137; D: 110)
    FGCU: KenPom 108 (O: 82; D: 173)

    Likely 5 seed 2nd Rd. Opponents:

    Notre Dame: KenPom 25 (O: 16; D:58)
    Purdue: KenPom 15 (O: 25; D: 16)
    Virginia: KenPom 7 (O: 39; D: 1)
    Cincinnati: KenPom 18 (O: 34; D: 9)
    Minnesota: KenPom 33 (O: 81; D: 18)
    SMU: KenPom 14 (O: 11; D: 34)
    Iowa State: KenPom 19 (O: 13; D: 43)
    Wisconsin: KenPom 17 (O: 37; D: 8)

    We are actually only rated higher than Minnesota of our likely 2nd round opponents. Also, notice that only Virginia, Cinci, and SMU are more than a very easy car trip away from Milwaukee. We will likely be outnumbered by fans from the 2nd round opponent unless it is one of those 3.
     
  10. BUcheer

    BUcheer Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $5,735
    Do they still avoid first round matchups with a previous opponent? If so then Vermont and Bucknell aren't options. Plus it would be just like the committee to put Purdue, ND and BU in the same bracket:(
     
  11. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,070
    I believe they try to avoid teams playing a third/fourth time before 3rd round... no rule against rematches.


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  12. BURph92

    BURph92 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,631
    I think someone mentioned this earlier, but it seems like there is a definite difference between the likely 12 seeds & the likely 13 seeds so being a 4 seed rather than a 5 could make a difference in our first round chances. Now with that said, could Butler lose to a 13? Sure, but anything to help our chances.


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  13. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,070
    Historically, there is a huge difference.

    This is for 2 main reasons: (1) the best of the best mid-major teams usually ceiling-out as an 11-12 seed and (2), the hot major conference teams usually floor-out as an 11-12 seed.
     
  14. ButlerHoopsFan

    ButlerHoopsFan Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $588
    Teams you played twice you can't play before the sweet 16. Teams you played 3 times you can't play before the elite 8. You also can't play on a court you've played more than three games on (excluding conference tourney) this is one of the reasons butler won't ever play more than 2 games at bankers life in a season. Had we played 3 this year and been a 1 or 2 seed we couldn't have been in Indy.


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  15. bu1973

    bu1973 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $767
    Has any team ever beaten the overall number 1 seed in the tourney before twice in the season, 2-0? I would assume the only possibility would be Duke or NC when the other one was number one. It seems unlikely to me
     
  16. Tiles52

    Tiles52 Active Member

    Money:
    $529
    I could be mistaken, but based on Lunardi's latest projections, Butler was 14 - 5 against teams projected to be in the tournament.

    Wins: Bucknell, Vermont, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Cincinnati, Marquette (2), Seton Hall, Villanova (2), Xavier (2), Providence
    Losses: Creighton (2), Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier

    We obviously were disappointed in the way we played in some of those losses, but overall, not too shabby.
     
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  17. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,061
    Clark Kellog has Arizona as a 1. If they happens, Butler is 3-0 against 1 seeds in 3 games.
     
  18. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,061
    Also, Lunardi has Butler a 4 in the Midwest with Florida as a 5. I love that matchup. Would also like ND since their "big guy" is a 6-6 Chrabs-type player. But Lunardi has ND a 3...
     
  19. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,959
    As opposed to 3-0 in five games? :) Sorry, couldn't resist.
     
  20. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,609
    Lunardi has Notre Dame as a 3 seed- I just don't see that at all. Palm has Florida State, which I think is a bit more reasonable. I agree the only way we get a 3 is if Committee just disregards the bad loss in favor of our top 25/50 record.
     

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