2018-19 Bracketology/Bubble Conversation

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Lukas Harkins, Feb 17, 2019.

  1. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $714
    Despite how many might feel about it, Butler is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Heading into this weekend (prior to the DePaul victory), I had the Dawgs as my last team in the field and they only moved up as a result of that win and losses from other bubble teams. To keep our bracketology conversations in one spot, I thought I would create this thread.

    As many of you may know, this is my fourth year as a bracketologist so I am hoping to post about what Butler fans should be rooting for each day in order to improve the odds of making the Big Dance. And with just five regular season games left to be played, I also put together a resume breakdown for the team right now (below). It's going to be a wild ride to the finish!

    Resume Breakdown for the Dawgs (as of Feb. 17):
    https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/02/17/butler-basketball-resume-breakdown-bubblicious-bulldogs/
     
    Shimmy, bmradio99, ButlerNut and 5 others like this.
  2. Dawgdad

    Dawgdad Member

    Money:
    $70
    Thank you for the breakdown. Looking forward to the updates headed down the stretch.
     
    Lukas Harkins likes this.
  3. fchd

    fchd Member

    Money:
    $51
    If Butler do make the Big Dance, it's going be as one of those .500 or so Major Conference teams people said should never get a sniff of the NCAAs when we were members of the Horizon League. Oh, the irony.
     
    joliebeth23 and Lukas Harkins like this.
  4. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,178
    No need to overcomplicate things here. It’s about as straightforward as a bubble scenario can be at this point in the season.

    It’s clear what happens if Butler wins 4 of the last 5 regular season games (in). It’s also pretty clear what happens if Butler wins 2 of the last 5 (out).

    If Butler wins 3 of the last 5 and those three are Prov twice and X at home, it’s likely the first BE tourney game is a play-in game.

    The most questionable scenario is If Butler beats Prov and X at home, loses @prov and wins 1 of @MU and @Nova. Are they in without a BE tourney win? I think it’d be a coin flip. I really don’t know.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  5. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $11,779
    We need to win minimum four more games period.

    I don't like our chances against Xavier.
     
    bumba, GoDawgs200 and Lukas Harkins like this.
  6. Tentozen

    Tentozen Active Member

    Money:
    $498
    Thanks again for all you do for Butler Basketball and this forum.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
  7. kmacker69

    kmacker69 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,561
    I think this is a good analysis of where we stand. Next game isn't a must win, but it's our best chance to get and stay on the right side of the bubble.
     
    joliebeth23 and Hinkle like this.
  8. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $714
    That is essentially the crux of my article as well. I’ve been waiting to write this piece for two weeks and now seemed like the right time because I was too busy to write a DePaul recap haha.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    ButlerFan89, Hinkle and kmacker69 like this.
  9. GoDawgs200

    GoDawgs200 Member

    Money:
    $72
    What if butler wins at providence vs providence and vs Xavier and loses the other two? Big easy tourney win necessary or no


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  10. GoDawgs200

    GoDawgs200 Member

    Money:
    $72
    I do agree that the Marquette game will be the best chance to win and lock a spot into the tourney. I think that or winning 2 games in tourney would lock it up too


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    joliebeth23 likes this.
  11. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Active Member

    Money:
    $483
    I am a bit unsure if at 18-13, 9-9 we have win a BE tournament to get in. The only reason I say that is because we don't know how much emphasis they put in a first round BE tournament game in terms of affecting our overall profile.
     
  12. kmacker69

    kmacker69 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,561
    Unless they go way off script, 4 more gets us in and if one is against Nova or Marq, it's a lock. Hand wringing for sure if we just get 4, but that should do it with this bubble...
     
    Lukas Harkins likes this.
  13. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $11,779
    Will they take more than four BE teams? Nova, Marquette, SJU and SHU are most certainly in.
     
  14. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,888
    The entire tide of the first Marquette game turned when the refs did not call an arm-extended push off on Howard. We fell to pieces after that for whatever reason.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    joliebeth23 likes this.
  15. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,178
    They wouldn't make it without a win in NYC. They'd be 18-13 heading into the BE Tournament. Our schedule is only the 43rd most difficult (currently); 18-14 just isn't enough. Oklahoma got in at 18-13 last year, but they'd played the fifth most difficult schedule and owned some signature wins. Alabama got in at 19-15 but played the 8th most difficult schedule and also had some very good wins.

    Xavier was the last team in the tournament in 2017 and they were 21-12 and played the 9th hardest schedule. Their best win was against Butler, which was the 25th best team. Lack of key wins is a huge ding in the resume.
     
    GoDawgs200 likes this.
  16. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,178
    SJ is probably golden, but don't count Hall in yet. .
     
    Tentozen likes this.
  17. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,888
    I want us to get in, but if we go 3-2, lose to Nova and Marquette and the 1st BET game, and still manage to get in, we don’t deserve it. I would be mad about any team making it with that resume except Butler, which I would not apologize for.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    Hinkle likes this.
  18. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,178
    I would feel dirty if we were in at 18-14 with 0 wins against the Kenpom top 25. But yeah, I highly doubt that'd be the case.
     
    bmradio99 and bumba like this.
  19. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,376
    I do think we'll beat X and PC. The bigger question might be can we get closer to 20 wins with a Q1 win in there somewhere.
     
    joliebeth23 likes this.
  20. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $714
    Part of why I specifically talk about rooting for Georgetown in my article. If they creep into the NET top-75, that is big for Butler's resume. Moves the loss to Q2 and the win to Q1. Hopefully the team can add another Q1, too.
     
    joliebeth23, bwesson15 and bumba like this.

Share This Page