2018-19 Season

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by UDDawg, Mar 26, 2018.

  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,671
    @dawgs2014 can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the criticism of defensive rating is that it estimates how many stops a player gets based mostly on steals, blocks and rebounds. But of course these are imperfect proxies for how many stops the player actually contributes.

    The inherent flaw is that one could in theory accumulate a ton of steals or blocks or rebounds (and thus have a good defensive rating) yet still be a poor defender in that they allow the opponent to score a ton of points. Conversely, one could never get a single block or steal or rebound and be an excellent defender yet have a terrible defensive rating. The point of defense is to prevent them from scoring, not to block or steal the ball.

    Of course, in reality, steals and blocks and rebounds often probably do a decent job estimating who is doing the best job defending.
     
  2. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    There are a couple things in play here: 1-counting stats are hugely overemphasized. I would imagine that there isn’t actually a huge correlation between counting stats and actual defensive capability. In some cases (chris Paul and steals) yes, but many of the league leaders in blocks are going to sell out of those and give up easy lay ups or fouls as a result. Same deal with steals.

    Secondly, you get credit for other people’s abilities and/or they get credit for yours. To oversimplify the point, if you put me out there with kris Dunn, Khri Thomas oh anunobi and deandre jordan, I’d probably have a pretty solid d rating, but theirs also would suffer because of me. Because of the influences of one another this distorts the measurements of any one player. It’s fine to measure a defense as a whole like this, but any one member as a component of that defense is much more a product of their teammates themselves from a scoring defense perspective.

    3) the data used to calculate defensive rating requires accurate play by play data. Simply put, that data is pretty bad. It’s possible to sub a player out without a corresponding substitution in and it’s possible to sub a player in without a corresponding sub out. That makes all data until that half’s end basically meaningless. Look through play by play data and you’ll see that this is fairly common, especially for road games.

    As far as Irishdawg’s evidence of who our top defensive rating guys were, one of those was actually pretty terrible.


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  3. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,671
    Guessing Wideman? His defensive box plus/minus doesn't align well with his d rating. Kamar and Kam were both top notch in each.
     
  4. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User VIP Member

    Money:
    $120
    Conversely, Fowler was tied for 2nd on the team in defensive box plus/minus, just behind Baddley and tied with Baldwin.
     
  5. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,671
    And the Synergy info also likes Fowler's defense.
     
  6. joliebeth23

    joliebeth23 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,302
    Not sure the best thread to put this, but thought you'd all like this pic:

    Screen Shot 2018-05-22 at 11.04.37 AM.png
     
    FriarDawg, #60, Shimmy and 2 others like this.
  7. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $13,392
    This boy could be the difference between top 2-3 or 5-6.
     
    bicknob likes this.
  8. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User VIP Member

    Money:
    $120
    More pics of the guys (specifically Brunk) working:



     
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  9. CarmelDawg23

    CarmelDawg23 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $927
    Jalen Hudson withdrew from the draft and is returning to Florida...they are going to be a very good team next season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the top 10 when we play them.
     
    MSUDawg likes this.
  10. IrishDawghouse

    IrishDawghouse Active Member

    Money:
    $172
    Just saw pictures of the Rec center’s new basketball court. Looks really sweet. Now if we could just get a practice facility lol


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  11. SpartanDawgs

    SpartanDawgs Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $515
    I'm glad that we have the personnel figured out for the next two seasons with possible minor adjustments along the way. The team might not be the most skilled or athletic, but hopefully we can see the traditional Butler compete in the top part of the Big East with their experience, chemistry and role recognition.

    Also, better competition in the non conference, and an upgraded practice gym. The future is looking good :)
     
  12. DawgsMD

    DawgsMD Forum Psychiatrist VIP Member

    Money:
    $2,690
    ConnersvilleBulldog and godogs91 like this.
  13. godogs91

    godogs91 Active Member

    Money:
    $3,246
    (Sarcasm on) I'm sure Title will be trying to understand how in the world we will ever be able to climb out of the basement and get past Georgetown, St. John's, and DePaul with our hopelessly inferior roster. (Sarcasm off) That alone should keep us busy for a good 15 or 20 minutes or so.
     
  14. seadawg

    seadawg Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $4,458
    I can always give a daily fishing and farm futures report.
     
    DawgsMD, Mad_Dawg 48 and godogs91 like this.
  15. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,671
    Love TW, but Fowler is a better player and 30 minutes of him this year is an upgrade over the 20/20 split from last year if Brunk can be at least adequate in his 10 or so minutes.

    The concern is more in replacing Fowler in 2019 given we don’t yet know where Brunk will be. Nze provides security in that. If Brunk still isn’t there, Nze can likely play a lot of effective minutes at the 5.


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    MSUDawg likes this.
  16. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,981
    Fowler is a better player? Really? I'm curious how you rate that

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    bmradio99, Mark Shelvin and peeps112 like this.
  17. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,868
    Fowler may possibly be the most under appreciated player of the last 15 years of Butler Basketball.
     
    Hinkle likes this.
  18. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $13,392
    Perhaps the most over appreciated.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  19. Mark Shelvin

    Mark Shelvin Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,064
    Probably the most ridiculous thing I’ve read on this board in a year. Congrats.

    Fowler was worse last year than his sophomore year because of the system we ran. Saying he was better than Wideman has me concerned about your ability to logically reason.


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  20. Ignatius J. Reilly

    Ignatius J. Reilly Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,445
    We got another player...must be time to renew the old “Is Fowler good?” debate. After that we can do “Do you believe in stats?” and “Do rankings matter?”


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