2018-19 Season

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by UDDawg, Mar 26, 2018.

  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,878
    Haslametrics (another one I like) has us at 40.

    Pretty clear we're somewhere in the 35-40 range as it stands right now. But I do think we can play a lot better.

    One of my favorite things about Haslametrics is that he also has a "consistency" metric, which is just a measure of how different teams' best and worst performances are. Butler is 344th, or almost dead last. So, Butler really is more erratic than just about anyone.
     
  2. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    Barttorvik has a game score rating that judges your actual performance against the quality of team that would be expected to turn in the level of performance you did against your opponent. Duke is like 97 and we have like 3 or 4 games with a score of 98, indicating we played better than duke would be expected to, and we also have a game score of 2 which is worse than any team in the country would be expected to play.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
    Hinkle likes this.
  3. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $6,109
    The Athletic has a really good profile of Walter McCarty up that includes some quotes from Coach Lickliter, discussion of Brad's influence on him, and Evansville's efforts to recreate - in some ways - the Butler culture.

    https://theathletic.com/749586/2019...e-and-bent-on-reviving-evansville-basketball/

    I know I am in the minority around here in thinking that Butler should not shy away from playing the in-state mid-majors. I am also all-in on thinking McCarty is the real deal and will have the Purple Aces competing for MVC titles sooner than later. With those two things in mind, I really would like to see Butler schedule a home-and-home series for 19/20 and 20/21.
     
  4. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,969
    I have no problem playing Evansville, but I want no part in going to their place. That is like a lose-lose proposition. If they want to play us, they would be more than happy coming every year to Hinkle, you don't think they'd take that?
     
  5. Eric

    Eric Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,305
    I seriously doubt that Evansville would be interested in any multi year contract that didn't have a return game.

    Sent from my SM-G892U using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
    NCJon likes this.
  6. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $5,326
    Does anyone remember the game we lost at Evansville in 2010-11? I think it went to OT.

    I distinctly remember a play where Colt Ryan stole the ball underneath the basket, but he was standing out of bounce and the ref missed it. That whole game made me mad, but for some reason that play stands out more than anything.
     
    bmradio99, NCJon and estar20dawg like this.
  7. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User VIP Member

    Money:
    $34
    Given that they wouldn't take it before when Butler was closer to its F4 runs and had one of the best coaches in the game, even with the time having past I doubt they'd take it now.

    I don't doubt that McCarty could have Evansville competing for MVC titles, and soon, but that league in general just isn't what it used to be, and more times than not you aren't going to get a quality opponent no matter who you play, and those teams are definitely good enough if they have a great night or you have a bad one to beat you. Pretty risky proposition, IMO.
     
    estar20dawg likes this.
  8. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $6,109
    This is where I diverge with a lot of people here on the board and feel like the concern about a road loss to an MVC team in the non-conference is part of the lingering effect of Butler having risen so fast from a mid-(low-, imo)major conference to a power conference so quickly.

    If a road loss to Evansville is the make or break for Butler getting into the NCAA tournament, then that Butler team isn't really a tournament team.

    I firmly believe the benefits of playing a road game at a decent mid-major that's also in-state and will help build the brand of a program in the shadows of IU, Purdue, and in that part of the state Louisville and UK, far outweighs the damage of a loss. Even a home loss to an Evansville (or Valpo or ISU in any given year) should not be make or break.
     
  9. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    I agree with you on your logic, but I think there is still a disproportionate risk/reward versus playing like ole
    Miss. Ole Miss were just a more exciting non conference and beating us would be fine, but ultimately it’s whatever. For Evansville we’re the biggest home game in the players career.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
    estar20dawg likes this.
  10. MasterSplinter

    MasterSplinter Active Member

    Money:
    $407
    I don't necessarily disagree with you and i love the old in state dynamic but if you can demonstrate that those same teams (IU, purdue, Louisville, UK, etc) play/played road games at in-state mid major programmes then you'll have a stronger argument. Sheer hazy recollection and impulse says they didn't/don't (i don't recall IU nor purdue EVER playing at Worthen Arena nor the Hulman Center!). If you can't then I have a hard time seeing why butler should to build brand. Still I'd love to see it just for the hoosierness of it all.

    Sent from my SM-G930F using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  11. Trumpforpresident2020

    Trumpforpresident2020 Active Member

  12. godogs91

    godogs91 Active Member

    Money:
    $3,129
    IU did a home-and-home with IPFW a couple years back. Epic fail on their part both years. I highly doubt it will happen again.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  13. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,969
  14. BURph92

    BURph92 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,142
    North Carolina opened this season with true road games @ Wofford & @ Elon. On the other hand, Duke is playing their first true road game tonight.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
    NCJon likes this.
  15. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $6,109
    UNC almost always plays at least one road game against a mid-major in the nonconference season and more often than not it's an in-state team. Sometimes it's a team from a neighboring state, sometimes it's a school where one of Roy Williams former assistants is coaching and sometimes it's a "home game" for an out-of-state, fourth year player.

    In recent seasons they've played at UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro, Davidson, Elon, and Wofford. Next year they'll go to UNC Wilmington. They usually work out a two for one deal to go to the smaller in-state schools. They've played just about every other in-state DI program in Chapel Hill over that same time frame. The only one I don't think has come is Charlotte. They also bring in teams from South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia regularly.

    Anyway, I like that scheduling philosophy far better than Duke's (never plays a road game unless forced to by the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but does bring in most of the regional schools) or Kentucky's (will only play neutral site or at Louisville, and I think Cal would kill that series if he could). I'll give IU and Louisville a pass for the moment since their coaches haven't been there too long and I don't know how they're scheduling over time.
     
  16. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,399
    I'm all for gaming the system however you need to do it to get better seeding. In the past, these games had no upside. We'll see if the NCAA sticks with or revises NET, which heavily weights road games (we're screwed) or what the eventual revision is. I'd imagine that if more emphasis is placed on these (probably the NCAA's intent to get major conferences to stop ducking midmajor and early season road games) the thinking might shift.
     
  17. MasterSplinter

    MasterSplinter Active Member

    Money:
    $407
    Thanks for digging those up. Wonder why UNC does this, probably old school Roy's approach? Pretty cool either way. I've another question for you though, if UNC, IU, Duke, UK, etc. lose a true road game at Wofford et al, does it have the same potential to hurt their NET/RPI/Committee standing as much as a team like Butler (or insert any power 5 mid table team here)? Those top tier teams get chances to beat other top teams plus other top teams in conference to make up for it. Clearly we've come a long way from the Horizon and A-10 where some/any losses could be killer, but how far have we come is my question? If we lost at Indiana State, Ball State, Valpo would that look any worse than losing at SLU? I suppose that changes year to year but you get the idea.

    And the IPFW thing is funny if nothing else! Although I think it was branded as some Indiana Classic or something, I still give IU credit for scheduling it but can't see them doing anything like that for a while. However, if the Crossoads didn't exist I wonder if they would schedule Butler? I guess they didn't play ND before Crossroads started so maybe the answer is no. Speaking of, I'd love the Crossroads to expand to four sessions with a Valpo, ISU, BSU, and Evansville in the noontime slot followed by IU, PU, BU, ND in the evening. What a joy for basketball fans! Sorry, rambling as I'm still trying to collect thoughts from last night's game.
     
  18. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    Because when you’re North Carolina playing at a place like that it’s not actually a road game, it’s a home game in another team’s gym.

    Of course a quasi road game is still tougher than a home game, but there are substantial benefits to going through the motions of playing a road game, while having a home crowd.

    This is probably quite similar to us playing at IPFW. Yes, it would be substantially Butler, but nothing like IU playing at IPFW. (Yes I know that happened and IU lost but our alum base is much more comparable to Duke than UNC, and even Duke its a fraction of)

    How many Elon fans or Charlotte fans are “UNC first” fans, and Elon or Charlotte second? How many true Elon or Charlotte fans are willing to make back the cost of their season ticket on one game to crazy UNC fan?





    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
    Nville Dog likes this.
  19. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $6,109
    That was a huge game for Elon's athletic program. They were opening a new arena. No Carolina fans were paying a huge premium, either. It's too close to Chapel Hill and too easy to get an early season ticket in the Dean dome.

    I went and got my tickets for free from a friend on the Elon faculty who is a Duke grad and die hard Blue Devil fan. She had no interest in going to the game. It was a great environment and there were more Elon fans in the arena than Carolina.

    It ended up not being much of a game, which was a disappointment since Elon should've been in position to compete for a CAA title this year. (Seems like the wheels are coming off and the Phoenix are probably heading for a coaching change. This was the season everything was supposed to be in place).

    Charlotte won't play Chapel Hill. After my earlier post, I looked it up. They've played twice and the last time was 1998.

    Your points are mostly true for the trip to Asheville - where Carolina fans may not make it down the mountain much - and Greensboro - where a SoCon team plays in an arena bigger than most NBA teams.
     
  20. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $6,109
    I love the idea of a set of early games to add to the Crossroads. I'm not sure they could raise the ticket prices enough to make it work though, and you couldn't have all three MVC teams in it. You'd have to swap one for IUPUI or Purdue - Fort Wayne (IPFW dropped the I, what?), which isn't quite as appealing.

    I also think the combo of the Big East schedule, the Crossroads Classic, the Gavitt Games, the new Big East-Big 12 challenge, and Butler's proven ability to schedule home-and-homes with other power conference teams (mostly the SEC, it seems, recently) gives Butler a decent margin of error to drop a true road game with an MVC team if that were to happen.
     

Share This Page