2019-20 Schedule

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by NCJon, Apr 5, 2019.

  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    As stated above, that's from BartTorvik's 2020 projections. I like Kenpom better, but Pom's preseason data isn't available until the fall, so it's the best we've got right now. Torvik generally tracks really closely with Pom anyway, and each tracks mostly in line with Vegas.

    The preseason stuff from the writers at NBC, CBS, ESPN, etc. is just as bad as the in-season stuff.
  2. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    The preseasons metrics are based on data that is imperfect and the calculations make a ton of assumptions - no doubt the metrics' preseason projections are infinitely worse than end-of-season calculations. But I'd bet my life they're significantly more accurate, on average, than the hunches of a handful of humans, hunches that are based on even less data, even more assumptions, and no grounded formula or logic.
    dawgs2014 likes this.
  3. ButlerGoalie

    ButlerGoalie Well-Known Member

    I think 20 wins again will make or break an NCAA tourney bid. That said, with this brutal schedule. We could realistically have a worse record than this past season and still be better. If that makes sense.

    I think they get 8-9 wins in non-con. and 10-11 wins in the Big East. I think bubble is where we will be all season long.
  4. Hinkle Magic2

    Hinkle Magic2 Well-Known Member

    At Baylor seems like the only close to auto-loss.

    Purdue doesn't historically play that well in the Crossroads Classic.

    Florida and Minnesota are both at home.

    At Ole Miss is winnable.

    The Hall of Fame Classic teams aren't juggernauts.

    Meh, I think we'll be alright and would rather schedule a tough out of conference schedule than some Charmin soft one. We need a few resume wins outside the Big East, and we can't say we didn't have that opportunity with this year's schedule.
  5. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Admittedly an Ole Miss homer, but that game at the Pavillion is no gimme. Just as much or more talent and the far superior coach...and at home.

    We could pick off a couple of these tough ones, no doubt. And could easily lose all of them. I think we're a better product than last season, but, it's still doesn't make for a good product. Until LaVall proves us wrong, I just can't feel too positive about things. The key question is not if Battle+Nze+Smits is better than Brunk+Fowler+Jorgenmiss...it is. But how much better? 3-4 games better? That's what will be needed and this schedule isn't our friend. If we were still in the A-10 or HL, I'd love it, but with the Big East looming and very strong, we're going to have a hard time cracking .500 and even so, we could see a muuuuch better product on the court. I think we'll enjoy this coming squad much better than last year's debacle...and I also think we have a same/worse record.
  6. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    If Butler gets to 20 wins with this schedule, they're likely not very close to the bubble. Louisville was a 7 seed this season at 20-13, having played the 16th most difficult schedule. Butler's schedule will almost certainly be top 10, and it could end up top 5 or even the very most difficult. 20 wins gets them in a 6-11 or 7-10 game, and not as the 10 or 11.

    Hall was in comfortably this season (10 seed), and they had 20 wins against the 44th most difficult schedule.

    If someone offered me 18 Butler wins this year, I'd probably take it, because that probably means a Tournament trip.
    Last edited: May 30, 2019
  7. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    I'd gladly take anything over .500. I'd be ecstatic with 20ish wins. And yes, 20 wins would net us a nice little tourney seed. I think I agree 18 (like 18-14) would get us in with this schedule.
  8. godogs91

    godogs91 Well-Known Member

    10-11 wins in conference puts you comfortably in the tournament, I think. 9-9 in most years will be enough, especially with 1 win in the conference tournament.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Butler Hoops mobile app
  9. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Not sure what LJ was thinking with this schedule. Could hurt morale
  10. Daddysmack

    Daddysmack Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Especially if the team thinks LaVall scheduled all these games.

    Games LaVall had a hand in scheduling

    An underwhelming Thanksgiving tournament

    University of Indianapolis
    IU Kokomo
    New Orleans
    Ole Miss

    Unless I am missing something. Every other game was scheduled for him and these are all winnable games.
  11. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

    NVM. I misread.
  12. Hank Kimball

    Hank Kimball Active Member

    I saw where the bookmakers in Las Vegas already had IU Kokomo as four point favorites over the Dawgs.
  13. HoosierPal

    HoosierPal Member

    What's always tough to do is to try and calculate how strong other conferences are, and how that may impact bids. Is the ACC up or down? They had 7 last tourney. Are they 6, 7 or 8? Big Ten got 8. Up or down from there? The OVC got in 2, and likely that is an outlier. Big East of course got 4. Is 5 possible, or dare say a slip to 3? It's a massive equation five months before the season starts.
  14. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    I would say the big east would line up right now as one of the top 3 or 4 conferences this coming season. I think it gets at least 5 in. It's much better than last season IMO.
    Shimmy likes this.
  15. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

  16. SpartanDawgs

    SpartanDawgs Well-Known Member

  17. bu97

    bu97 Super Moderator

    2019-20 @ButlerMBB Non-Conference Schedule
    Sat., Oct. 26 – IU-Kokomo (Exhibition // Homecoming Weekend at Butler)
    Fri., Nov. 1 – University of Indianapolis (Exhibition)
    Wed., Nov. 6 – IUPUI
    Sat., Nov. 9 – New Orleans (Family Weekend at Butler)
    Tues., Nov. 12 – Minnesota (Gavitt Tipoff Games)
    Sat., Nov. 16 – Wofford (Hall of Fame Classic – on-campus game)
    Fri., Nov. 22 – Morehead State (Hall of Fame Classic – on-campus game)
    Mon., Nov. 25 – vs. TBA (Hall of Fame Classic; Kansas City, Mo.)
    Tues., Nov. 26 – vs. TBA (Hall of Fame Classic; Kansas City, Mo.)
    Tues., Dec. 3 – at Ole Miss
    Sat., Dec. 7 – Florida
    Tues., Dec. 10 – at Baylor (BIG EAST-Big 12 Series)
    Sat., Dec. 14 – Southern
    Sat., Dec. 21 – vs. Purdue (Crossroads Classic; Bankers Life Fieldhouse; Indianapolis, Ind.)
    Sat., Dec. 28 – Louisiana-Monroe
  18. Red1972

    Red1972 Well-Known Member

    A lot of Saturday dates, which is good, hopefully some decent chances for some non conference wins.
  19. Red1972

    Red1972 Well-Known Member

    I am looking at 9-4, maybe 10-3. How does anyone out there feel?
    IndieDawg and bumba like this.
  20. NateDog

    NateDog Well-Known Member

    Have to be 5-0 going into the HOF classic. We essentially have a full month playing exclusively P5 schools in the non-conference (-Southern).
    Pretty crazy, but momentum will be huge during that stretch.

Share This Page