BE tourney seeding scenarios/probabilities

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by bu97, Mar 7, 2019.

  1. bu97

    bu97 Super Moderator

    Money:
    $459
    I'm sleep-deprived and dependent upon this dated PDF still being valid as far as tiebreakers go once you get all the way through the standings, but here's what I came up with. I won't swear it's 100% accurate but it should be close. Feel free to argue with me. Probabilities based on current (as of this post) kenpom projections.

    Villanova: 1 (76.9%), 2 (23.1%)
    Marquette: 1 (23.1%), 2 (76.9%)
    St. John's: 3 (39.0%), 5 (25.3%), 6 (28.4%), 7 (6.9%), 8 (0.5%)
    Xavier: 3 (28.2%), 4 (31.8%), 5 (14.9%), 6 (20.8%), 7 (4.3%)
    Seton Hall: 3 (27.5%), 4 (17.6%), 5 (2.3%), 6 (3.6%), 7 (48.2%), 8 (0.9%)
    Creighton: 3 (4.1%), 4 (38.2%), 5 (38.0%), 7 (9.1%), 8 (9.1%), 9 (1.4%)
    Georgetown: 3 (1.2%), 4 (1.8%), 5 (7.4%), 6 (41.1%), 7 (29.1%), 8 (12.2%), 9 (7.2%)
    DePaul: 4 (5.8%), 5 (8.8%), 6 (3.9%), 7 (2.3%), 8 (0.4%), 9 (36.5%), 10 (42.4%)
    Butler: 4 (4.8%), 5 (3.3%), 6 (2.3%), 8 (34.7%), 9 (42.4%), 10 (12.7%)
    Providence: 8 (42.4%), 9 (12.7%), 10 (45.0%)

    Specific to our Bulldogs:
    4 with: a win, Seton Hall loss, Georgetown loss, and Creighton loss
    5 with: a win, Creighton loss, and [(Seton Hall loss and Georgetown win) or (Seton Hall win, Georgetown loss, and St. John's loss)]
    6 with: a win, Creighton loss, and [(Seton Hall win and Georgetown win) or (Seton Hall win, Georgetown loss, and St. John's win)]
    8 with: a win and Creighton win
    9 with: a loss and Creighton win
    10 with: a loss and Creighton loss
     
  2. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,854
    Nice job, to sum everything up first and foremost we're rooting for Max Struss to put up 50 on Saturday...oh and us to play with that same kind of beat our chests intensity again...
     
    kmacker69 likes this.
  3. jkcdawgs

    jkcdawgs Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $592
    My head hurts.
     
  4. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,115
    I turned it off early, but DePaul ended up hanging 101 on GT last night. While I see no real chance of them winning on the road at Creighton, I hope Strus goes off as well. The kid is unconscious when they play at home lately.
     
    BU_NeonHat and estar20dawg like this.
  5. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,343
    Strus is a stud. He and Powell are my favorite BE players not attending Butler
     
  6. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,917
    My brain was just turned into blended dumb. But...I think I kinda sorta know what to look for this weekend. Thanks97.

    What I really care about though is going all in Saturday like the guys showed Tuesday. We beat providence with that same effort and although this season has sucked, finishing it with a couple good Ws would bring a hint of satisfaction plus show us all this program has a heartbeat.
     
    jkcdawgs likes this.
  7. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,368
    bu97 and willisbrown like this.
  8. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,917
  9. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,368
    It's cool to me that DePaul has a very real shot of being Not Last. Go Demons!
    Also since it allows you to change past scenarios, it will show exactly how devastating that losing at home to Providence was to Butler. Just absolutely brutal.
     
    Tentozen and estar20dawg like this.
  10. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,854
    So you're a glutton for torture eh? Why stop there go back and change that 1 point loss at Xavier to really finish the job ;)
     
    HinkleMagic319 likes this.
  11. gmoser1210

    gmoser1210 Active Member

    Money:
    $268
    I never would have believed two weeks ago that Cincinnati Catholic would have a shot at the three seed.
     
    bumba likes this.
  12. gmoser1210

    gmoser1210 Active Member

    Money:
    $268
    Everything else staying the same, a win against Providence at home still would not have made it possible for us to get the three seed. The one I'd like to have back is the overtime loss to St. John's.
     
  13. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Active Member

    Money:
    $483
    From what i can gather online, Butler needs to at least split the last game @ Providence and their first in the BE Tournament to have a shot at the NIT realistically. Win both and I think it is secured.
     
  14. Daddysmack

    Daddysmack Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $298
    Why stop there. Just win the BE tournament and get an automatic bid!
     
    HinkleMagic319 and Insane Dawg like this.
  15. bu97

    bu97 Super Moderator

    Money:
    $459
    I think my spreadsheet matches all 32 of these so I feel a little better now about the accuracy of my initial post. Thanks for sharing.
     
    bmradio99 likes this.
  16. BU_NeonHat

    BU_NeonHat Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,259
    Wait so if we win @ Providence, Seton Hall loses vs. Villanova, Georgetown loses @ Marquette, and Creighton loses vs. DePaul we're the 4 seed?

    wow
     
    bumba likes this.
  17. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,650
    I put my entire retirement savings on the first two. That last one, not so much. I think DePaul has played well on the road, though.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
  18. BUdawgsfan04

    BUdawgsfan04 Member

    Money:
    $180
    Very possible
     
  19. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,650
    Would like to see X beat St Johns to put them squarely on the bubble. A BET championship appearance could get Butler in.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
  20. BoyGeoff

    BoyGeoff Active Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $185
    I’ll just wait til Saturday when the dust settles and see what’s what. I’ll be at the Garden for the Thursday afternoon games. May catch Butler in one of those.



    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     

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