Big East Conversation

Discussion in 'Around the League' started by gmoser1210, Sep 5, 2013.

  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    The drop between 4 and 5 in the Big East has been widely repeated (including by me at some point, I'm sure), but it is kind of a myth. Haslametrics, which puts more weight on the more recent games (in other words, relative to Kenpom, it discounts the November games and the pre-season rankings), currently has Xavier ranked 25th overall and 349th in momentum, while Marquette is 26th and 18th in momentum. Butler is 28th and 141st in momentum.

    The gap between 2-4 and 5/6 feels bigger than it really is because Seton Hall and Creighton have generally played well lately; Xavier is still highly regarded in the polls because they've got a great record and can play some great offense, but their true value simply isn't as high as their perceived value. The gap is basically nonexistent (right now).
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018
  2. Title

    Title Well-Known Member

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    Butler has five games the rest of the year with a win probability greater than 60%. The first of those is Friday. Can't lose any of those. The Marquette game has sort of become a linchpin to the season.
     
    Dewars12 likes this.
  3. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    This Saturday you guys have Creighton. I think that is a measuring stick game for X. Honestly, the way they moved the ball against us the other night was unreal. If X wins at home, you'll challenge for 2nd. Agree, can't realistically see Seton Hall as better than X.

    I don't know if BU's perimeter defense is better than Providence or Marquette's ability to shoot from deep. We'll see, but we're very inconsistent this year. I'd be a realist thinking 6th in the BE & a March Madness 8-10 seed invite is where we are right now. Anything better would be icing on the cake.
     
  4. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Concur on Marquette being the linchpin or pivot. Extraordinary shooters. They handily beat Seton Hall and held Delgado and Carrington which we couldn't do. We need to bring everything we have tomorrow plus find a Matt Howard.
     
  5. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Super Moderator VIP Member

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    I had mentioned this in another thread, but Butler's 3 point shooting percentage at Hinkle vs. away from Hinkle prior to the game on 1/12/18 is pretty incredible. Here are the numbers for all the Big East teams as of right now.

    Home - Neutral/Away = differential
    Butler - 42.59% - 25.57% = 17.02%
    Creighton - 40.13% - 35.40% = 4.73%
    DePaul - 32.45% - 33.10% = -0.65%
    Georgetown - 32.64% - 39.74% = -7.1%
    Marquette - 40.56% - 41.28% = -0.72%
    Providence - 36.27% - 40.94% = -4.67%
    Seton Hall - 37.88% - 37.21% = 0.67%
    St. John's - 29.50% - 34.83% = -5.33%
    Villanova - 36.42% - 43.12% = -6.7%
    Xavier - 36.24% - 35.38% = 0.86%
     
  6. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    I'm not worried about our three point shooting as I'm Marquettes.
     
  7. Jay Wrights hand-me-downs

    Jay Wrights hand-me-downs New Member

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    That's interesting, all I remember is Butler shooting 68% at Hinkle. We can just round up to 100% for historical perspective.
     
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  8. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    I am becoming more and more amazed with this stat. This alone pretty much explains why butler is near the very bottom of D1 in the “consistency” ranking on Haslametrics. Here's some context on those percentages.
    • Wofford leads the NCAA in three point percentage at 43.2%, or just a half a percent higher than Butler's home three point percentage.
    • East Carolina is dead last in all of the NCAA in three point percentage at 25.8%, or slightly higher than Butler's home/away three point percentage.

    That is just mind boggling. Butler shoots like the best shooters in the country at home and shoots like the very worst shooters in the country on the road/neutral courts. And that's not hyperbole!

    I'm confident some differential isn't that unusual - players surely are often more comfortable shooting on a court they regularly shoot on. But I'd imagine a differential that large is extremely unusual.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
  9. Albick

    Albick Active Member VIP Member

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    Notwithstanding the anomalous Nova game, it's worth pointing out that the average Kenpom ranking of our home opponents is 173, while the average Kenpom ranking for our non-home opponents is 44. I suspect that has almost as much to do with our three-point shooting differential as feeling comfortable at Hinkle does.
     
  10. Title

    Title Well-Known Member

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    Everyone in a top 6 or 7 conference is going to see KenPom opponent averages like that, at this time of year, because everyone plays buy games vs bad teams and participates in exempt tournaments
     
  11. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Correct, almost everyone in a power conference is going to have markedly easier home slate than away slate. Curiously, though, it appears the three point percentages generally have not been affected by it, at least for the other BE schools this season (which lends credence to the notion that three point defense percentage is pretty much out of your control, since you'd expect that each of these other BE schools would shoot much better at home since they're, on average, playing far inferior opponents) than neutral/away.)
     
  12. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Super Moderator VIP Member

    Money:
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    It is worth noting, but at least for Butler, it actually doesn't quite work the way that most might think:

    Against Power teams (P5 + Big East and other teams like Gonzaga, Wichita State, Cincinnati, etc.), Butler's shooting 51.67% from 3 at home. Take out the Villanova game, and they're still shooting 42.11% from 3 at home against those teams. Against Non-Power teams, Butler is shooting 39.1% from 3 at home, and if you take out the Western Illinois game, they're only shooting 32.35% from 3 at home against that level of opponent.

    Away from Hinkle, even against Portland State, they still only shot 23.53% in their second game of the PK80. Now some of these, like the Power teams at home and the Non-Power teams away from Hinkle, these are very small sample sizes and they may level out as the season goes along. But to have that kind of differential is crazy. Georgetown's odd differential can be explained by their Richmond game in which they shot 56% from 3, and that they've only had 4 games away from their home arena, 3 of which have been in conference play. Villanova's is kind of similar to Butler in that they've shot better from 3 at home against Power programs, but they've only had 2 thus far in conference play, so that's dragging down their average at home currently.
     
  13. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Is this an argument for practicing in Hinkle versus a practice facility?
     
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  14. BUcheer

    BUcheer Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    That’s what’s concerning about our mediocre defense. We need to ramp it up on the road as relying on offense isn’t cutting it. As they say, defense travels.
     
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  15. butlernut

    butlernut Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I thought they say O'Mara travels ;)
     
  16. butlernut

    butlernut Well-Known Member VIP Member

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  17. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Ive actually wondered about the effect of always practicing on the real floor before. It can’t hurt. The net effect of a real practice facility is surely positive if it gets you better players. But it can’t hurt your shooting to actually practice on the real deal. Would be interesting to know if butler regularly has a greater home vs away shooting differential than teams with a practice facility.


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  18. SpartanDawgs

    SpartanDawgs Well-Known Member

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    Had the same thought. Though they don't just use the two Hinkle baskets to practice. I've joked before that they should travel to a high school gym one or twice a week and practice their shooting there. Maybe bring out the measuring tape and have LaVall show the players that its the same dimensions anywhere ;)
     
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  19. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Super Moderator VIP Member

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    Sounds like an interesting weekend project to at least look at the past few years to see what the difference typically is for Butler teams.
     
  20. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    The Creighton Blue Jays are my favorite college basketball team for today.
     
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