Butler Bulldogs (12-3) vs Villanova Wildcats (13-2) - 1/10

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Jared Grubbs, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

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    The runs both led to leads we never got back. We could have slowed down, taken a timeout and realigned our lineup/defense to address whatever was beating us.

    Doesn't mean I don't like Holt, but I also don't think we should go through the season with blinders on. A timeout could have stopped Nova's momentum if the right adjustments were made.
     
  2. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    Its almost sacrilege to say, and I wasn't going to bring it up because I know no one will believe it, but there isn't really any such things as (positive) momentum in high-level sports. There is no statistical evidence that making several shots in a row, for example, increases your chance of making the next one. (And if there was such a thing, why would calling a TO do anything? People claim it can stretch over halves or games, so what is 60s going to do?) If you think about it, this makes sense as part of the reason a high-level athlete is such is because he is able to play near the top of his abilities most of the time. That is, if one needs a psychological boost to play well, he is probably not a top level athlete to begin with.

    What can happen sometimes is an athlete or team gets frustrated and starts to play poorly. The difference is that playing poorly is an out-of-the-norm behavior for a top athlete, so may sometimes cause a psychological let down, whereas playing well is normal so doesn't lead to a noticeable gain. You can call that frustration "negative momentum" if you like, and maybe that can be can fixed by calming the team down during a timeout. However, I didn't see that happening yesterday. I saw Villanova make several difficult shots in a row and Butler miss several average (giving the opponent) difficulty shots in a row. In this case, I didn't really see anyone panic the way I thought they did against Providence. As such, I don't think a timeout would have helped in this case.

    Sometimes a run of plays that all go one way is just a statistical anomaly, nothing more.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2016
  3. chas1116

    chas1116 Active Member

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    Another thing that killed Butler were the two turnovers in the 1H, where Butler could have stretched a lead, which led to easy Villanova layups. On the first- I wasn't sure if Lewis could even get the ball over the time line- he falls down and its an easy two for Nova at the other end. Same thing happened with Etherington, leading to a 1-0 Nova fast break. In a 60-55 game, you can not give up 4 points in uncontested layups due to careless turnovers
     
  4. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Similarly Martin lost control of the ball bringing it into the front court late in the second half.
     
  5. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    It just wasn't Martin's day. That dunk right before that would have been nice to have. Also missed the front of a 1 and 1 and had a few bunnies roll out.
     
  6. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but it did. Gotta play the hand you're dealt.
     
  7. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Discounting Ochefu's two foul shots we lost to Nova by three and held them to 53. Three points is ever so close. A couple of shots/turnovers and one possession is all the difference.
     
  8. butlerfan

    butlerfan New Member

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    It's a problem that needs to be FIXED. Fast. 45 has taken 11 three point shots in the 4 BE games and hit 2. He's taken 35 total shots in the 4 games. And is 12 for 35 from the floor. That's an incredible amount of empty possessions for a fairly skilled offensive player.

    Lewis has taken 9 three shots in the 4 BE games and hit 2. Those two combined are 4 for 20 from three in the BE season. That's 20% for you math majors out there.

    I literally hate this team's shot selection in the BE season. This team outside of Jones and Wideman have lost their collective minds on offense. They are the only two that have been remotely efficient thru 4 games.

    Kelan has started to slide some since the Providence game. I thought he took about 3 or 4 bad shots last night. He's 1 of 9 from 3 in the BE.

    Kellen is 19/49 in the BE. Has shot the ball better in the last 2 games, but overall I haven't liked his shot selection for the last 3 weeks or so.

    IMO shot selection is something this team CAN fix. It has talented offensive players. They have to play unselfishly though and make smart decisions. We have wasted way too many offensive possessions. That is something Chris has to get straightened out.

    I really liked the effort on defense last night. Some individual breakdowns here and there, but overall it's the kind of defense this team can play. They aren't going to be the 09-10 Butler defense , but they can be effective. And they competed for the most part on the glass.

    Find their minds on offense in regard to shot selection and Butler could still vault up the BE standings......
     
  9. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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  10. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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  11. SnoopDawg

    SnoopDawg Well-Known Member

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    Four things:

    1. AC is playing like absolute **** this year. Take the ball to the basket and get fouled or use your finesse to finish the play. They are asking him to take those threes for a reason. Get him near the basket where he is a terrific passer and in years past a good finisher. If nothing else he at least has a chance at an offensive rebound down there. He does nothing for us floating around outside.

    2. With Ochefu and Reynolds in foul trouble Rose should have been taking it to the basket the entire game like he did in the final minutes. I'm glad he finally got selfish at the end and decided he was going to try to win it for us though. Jones is our best player, hands down.

    3. Where did Dunham go offensively in the second half? Some of his drives in the first half were marvelous. I don't care if you have 2 or 3 fouls, play your ass off. The amount of times he or Gathers let Hart get to the basket was ridiculous.

    4. It's a loss against a top ten team in the country and a team that has been dominating the Big East since we joined. If Gathers hits that shot I would have liked our odds in overtime. It's not time to panic. I just can't take how moody this team is. With the exception of Rose, nobody plays with 100% intensity the entire game.
     
  12. chas1116

    chas1116 Active Member

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    I'm still trying to figure out how a 5'11'' caucasian guard who happens to be a McD AA could do so without being a lights out shooter (ex. Jordy Hulls, hell- I'd settle for Zach Hahn). As has been mentioned- Chrabs 0-4 and Lewis 0-3 from 3PT = SEVEN wasted posessions which you can't have in a 60-55 game. If Chrabs misses his first 3, I want handcuffs on him the rest of the game. All of his misses were at such inopportune times as well
     
  13. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm trying to find his stats now and can't, but Lewis a good shooter from 3 in high school. I don't know if it's a confidence issue with him or what. He is perfectly capable of knocking down any shot on the floor.
     
  14. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    This isn't even close to true. Chrabascz has a grand two of two games below 100 ("average") in ORating all year: Providence and Villanova. For the season, he has the highest rating of anyone on the team except Fowler (whose tiny minutes make his number pretty meaningless). Don't confuse the last game for "all year."

    I'm not a big fan of Chrabascz shooting 3s, but not because he sucks at it (he is 33% in his career, a better reflection of his ability than half a season consisting of 34 total shots), but rather because he is so amazing inside and in the high post that it seems to be a waste to have him on the outside.
     
  15. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    There is always some stat you can point to and say that is why the game was lost, but its completely unfair to say those possessions were "wasted." Unless you are psychic, there is no way to know a guy is going to miss a shot. I believe 6 of the 7 were good, open shots that were within the flow of the offense. If 2/7 go in, which is below expectation given the players' abilities and the quality of the shots, that's 6 points in 7 possessions, that's .86 ppp, which is about what Butler averaged on the game. If 3/7 go in, or 2/7 go in and you get 1 offensive board on 5 misses, (either being perfectly realistic), then you are talking about very efficient offense.

    The fact that the shots didn't go in obviously contributed to the loss. Every miss contributes to the loss. But that doesn't make taking a given shot bad. Realistically, you are going to miss nearly half of your 2s and >60% of your 3s in most games - that does not make >50% of shots taken bad shots.
     
  16. butlerfan

    butlerfan New Member

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    Chrabascz has played like hot garbage in the BE season. He had one good scoring period versus Depaul but didn't play the other end that night and rebound the ball at all. People are talking about the BE season with Chrabascz. We are not focusing on the Non-Conf. His play is hurting this team in the BE. He looks extremely SLOW in this League.

    He is shooting 26% from 3 on the season. That needs to stop.
     
  17. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    If you are going to diminish a near perfect offense performance in a player's second most recent game and judge him solely by the worst 12% (2/16, he was OK against Xavier) of his games, then you are going to think every player is "hot garbage." For the year, Chrabascz has been the best offense player on the team.
     
  18. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I think one of our problems on this team is a lack of likable personalities. Would like to investigate inserting Master Everett into the starting lineup to build chemistry.
     
  19. butlerfan

    butlerfan New Member

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    He was awful down at X. I was there. He's not the best offensive player on this team. Jones or Martin are.

    For the record, I could care less what he has done vs Southern Utah, IUPUI etc. Chips have been moved to the middle of the table. It's big boy basketball right now and 45 has not shown up. It's a problem that Chris has to address. Either through a benching and inserting another player or getting 45 back on track. And that is not going to be easy. He has picked up some really bad offensive habits.

    One of the real problems with this Butler team are lack of two way players. I think that changes some next year with Savage/Baldwin/Brunk/Washington and Baddley. Chrabascz/Dunham and Lewis cannot play both ends. It's very difficult to win games vs elite teams when you are playing 3 guys that can't guard and all three should be very good offensive players in their own right, but even that part of their games have gone haywire lately. Bright side, Dunham does appear to be getting his stroke back.

    I am all for a benching of Lewis and Chrabascz.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2016
  20. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    Finally fixed the vBookie. It will be up for the next thread.
     

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