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Jared Grubbs

Butler Bulldogs (12-7) vs Villanova Wildcats (14-4) - 1/22

Jared Grubbs, Jan 21, 2019

Settled
  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,035
    The game is less than 30 hours away and is the most important game of the season to date. Time to get this thread up and discuss.

    Game Time: 7:00 Eastern

    Watch: Fox Sports 1

    Listen: 107.5 FM / 1070 AM

    Opponent overview
    • 14-4 (5-0)
    • Kenpom: 27th overall; 11th offense; 84th defense
    • Tempo: 338th (64 possessions per game)
    • Likely starters: Eric Paschall (6-8, SR); Phil Booth (6-3, SR); Collin Gillespie (6-3, SO); Jermaine Samuels (6-7, SO); Saddiq Bey (6-8, FR)
    • Strengths: offensive 2 point percentage (56%); 3 point attempt rate (52% of field goal attempts are three pointers, third in the NCAA);
    • Weaknesses: defensive turnover percentage (209th); defensive block % (203rd); defensive steal % (208th); bench minutes (278th)
    • Key players: Paschall and Booth, who have averaged 40 points combined in Villanova's 5 Big East games.

    Other notes:
    • Pom projection: Butler 70, Villanova 68
    • Villanova has not lost by more than one possession since November 17th.
     
    bwesson15 and godogs91 like this.
  2. godogs91

    godogs91 Active Member

    Money:
    $3,167
    Numerically speaking, this squad has the highest AdjD since 2012, and the second highest of his tenure. Offensively, they have the lowest AdjO since 2014. They are also his second-slowest tempo team ever (and lowest-rated). So far in conference, they are the top-rated offense and the #6 defense with a net differential of +11.4, while Butler ranks #2 in offense and #3 in defense with a net differential of +7.6. This will all come down to which Bulldog squad shows up, and whether they can sustain for an entire 40 minutes.
     
  3. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,035
    My biggest concern is stopping Paschall. We just don't really have a good match up against PFs/undersized centers (see Paul Reed, DePaul; and Juwan Morgan, IU - both had then-career highs against Butler this season).
     
  4. novachap

    novachap Active Member

    Money:
    $204
    Going to be a heck of a game. Of course Jorgensen will go off for you guys! Tucker has been a really nice addition. Not sure how he is on defense, will be interesting to see who he matches up against.
     
    knobcreekfan and Hinkle like this.
  5. chas1116

    chas1116 Active Member

    Money:
    $249
    Back to the St Johns game prediction- the reason we study history is that it so often repeats itself. Far more talented (National Champions) Nova teams have come to Hinkle and left empty handed against similarly skilled Butler teams. This Nova team bears little to no resemblance to those of the past 5 years. As long as Butler plays as selfless as they have the last two games- this one is a fairly easy W and cover




    Sent from my iPad using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  6. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,084
    Nothing is ever easy against Nova and Jay Wright

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  7. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $4,184
    Nothing in the BEast is a fairly easy W and cover.
     
  8. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User VIP Member

    Money:
    $72
    Agreed - Paschall is going to be a matchup nightmare for either Brunk or Fowler. Conversely, it'll be interesting to see what the strategy is going to be regarding Tucker. Nova's got the guys to take him away, so how do we try to free him and McDermott up?

    The nice thing is a lot of the same stuff that worked against St. John's should also be able to be employed vs. Villanova given their personnel.
     
  9. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,297
    I need new Butler pictures on Getty Images. Working on my keys to success piece right now and I am using the same images for like every article (my site has a contract with Getty so that's all we can use). I'm really hoping I get new ones from the 'Nova game lol. I only have pictures from the IU and Ole Miss games this season.
     
    RegionTownDawg likes this.
  10. Hinkle Magic2

    Hinkle Magic2 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $792
    I feel like Butler has a good chance for the upset, if they play together AT HOME.
     
  11. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,297
    cornette33 likes this.
  12. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
    $15,949
  13. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
    $15,949
  14. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $4,184
  15. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,706
    It's getting better. Still some work to be done but he does a better job beating the opponent to the spot and staying in front of his man. Still some rough spots but way better than the hesitancy he was playing with at first. Also he's very good on the glass. Offensively he's been nails.
     
  16. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,084
    except for hitting his layups ;)
     
    willisbrown likes this.
  17. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,706
    Yeah, the best defensive strategy with Tucker is just to open up the lane and let him get to the rack. You'll win by 20 points.
     
  18. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $3,412
    Tonight would be a great time for Butler to figure out how to get to the line at a better rate. And for Brunk to snap out of his (minor) slump. (Maybe we just need to have whatever center has to have a good game come off the bench.)
     
  19. butlerguy03

    butlerguy03 Member

    Money:
    $148
    Going to be a very tight game, I think. Nova has figured some things out in Big East play. If Tucker has turned the corner, Butler is a legit top 3 team in the conference.
     
  20. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,035
    Paschall will play a lot of minutes at the 5 (though it'll be interesting to see if they play Roundtree and Paschall together more than usual so Roundtree can take NF/JB). Brunk has 3 inches on Paschall and Paschall isn't a particularly good defender. If Brunk plays well, it's certainly not inconceivable for him to go for 18-10.
     
    bwesson15 and bmradio99 like this.

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