Butler Bulldogs (14-10) at St. John's Red Storm (17-7) - 2/12

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Lukas Harkins, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
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    I need to do more research here. I don’t know if I have access to enough data though. 0.90 ppp defensively for Fowler on a team that ranks 87th overall defensively is a staggering stat. I don’t even know if I can express how ridiculous that is. For comparison, Texas Tech has the best defense in the league. They have only 2 players (both under 300 possessions played) that have a better efficiency.


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  2. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Totally agree. If the coach is not perfect we need a new one.

    We also need to at least consider not playing players who miss any shots.



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  3. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

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    Is there data available anywhere for % of contested/open/wide-open shots we've taken as the season has progressed?
     
  4. Red1972

    Red1972 Well-Known Member

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    Well done and shows how different the season would be 14-11 could be 18-7 or 19-6. Everybody would be happy
     
  5. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

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    I think that chart exactly sums up what you and some others of us have talked about to going to a Fowler and throw in David at the 5 small ball for 5 minute stretches mixed with a sprinkling of Brunk at 5-8 minute intervals. I have no problem giving Fowler all the minutes he can right now if he continues to play with this new found aggressiveness and energy
     
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  6. kmacker69

    kmacker69 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
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    Those numbers really stand out! Surprised that the offensive numbers are better also, if only slightly. Feels like Nate is way better on D and a little worse on O, but that must be the missed layups coloring my perception! ;)
     
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  7. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
    $15,957
    What might surprise people is that the entire reason for the increased efficiency offensively with Fowler in the game is rebounding. Butler gets 30% of their own misses while Fowler is in and 20% while Brunk is in during conference play. To try and put that in perspective, if those were team numbers on the season, Butler would rank 112th in OReb% with Fowler and 348th with Brunk (not adjusted for competition).

    I know there are a lot of people that don’t like on court numbers, and there are valid complaints and limitations with them. But when it comes to comparing Brunk and Fowler the numbers are so extreme that it’s nearly impossible to deny that there is something significant there.


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  8. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
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    And to add on to all of this, I believe these numbers are a perfect example of how the game of basketball has changed. Offensively it’s all about spacing the floor and ball screens. Your typical 7 foot centers struggle to guard the pick and roll and to cover all the ground that is necessary against these modern offenses. Fowler is unique because he can do that. Big, slow centers can only play in today’s game if they can absolutely punish you inside. They have to be one of those guys you run the offense through in the post every possession and they demand double teams down low. They have to dominate the glass.

    I’m hopeful Brunk can become that. He’s much closer now than he was last year. But right now he’s just not dominant enough on the block to make up for the liabilities elsewhere.

    Related side note: Everyone was amazed at how good Butler used to be without playing a traditional center. So many picked against against Butler because they thought the size disadvantage was too much to overcome. Only now looking back on things do I realize that Butler being undersized down low have actually worked in our favor as often as it hurt us. Size was so overrated back then.


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  9. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    What does these numbers say about AT versus PJ?
     
  10. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
    $15,957
    Keep in mind it’s harder to compare players who are in different roles and often play together, but it certainly supports the notion that AT killing the spacing is harming the offense. And Butler doesn’t give up any fewer points with Thompson in the game vs Jorgensen.

    I know this is branching off to a different question, but there is actually some interesting data regarding AT, specifically in relationship with Baldwin. I can’t remember who it was, but a few games back someone posted that our biggest problem was our starting backcourt doesn’t play well together. And I’d never thought about it until I read that, but I thought it was a reasonable statement, and when I ran the numbers it very much supported it. I don’t have them with me atm but I’ll post those as soon as I get a chance.


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  11. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Fowler has virtually no ability to make his own shot. Kamar gets double and triple teamed at the top of the key and finds Nate standing all alone in the lane. If you're going to celebrate a 6'10 guy making wide open layups, that's fairly ordinary.
     
  12. UDDawg

    UDDawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I. Can’t. Wait. Until. He. Graduates. So. We. Can. Stop. Having. This. Argument.
     
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  13. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I know I'm odd man out but I'd like to see PJ at the point along with McD, Tucker, KB and Fowler as starters. The fire power could really throw off an opponent. I realize PJ is perhaps the second most criticized player on the team but we don't go into overtime the last game without him nor do we win our recent games against GT and SHU.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
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  14. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Yet it works out somehow....


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  15. Hinkle Magic2

    Hinkle Magic2 Well-Known Member

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    Howard was awesome on hedging, switching, and rotating back on defense. Wideman was very good too.

    But on the original topic, I think Brunk started the season out really strong, but hasn't really done much as of late. Fowler has really picked it up the past couple of games and is currently playing better.

    I'm also fine with seeing more Jorgensen right now. He's got a hot shooting hand, and he's really the only guy other guy besides Baldwin who can create his own shot. Tucker maybe, but he needs to tighten up his handles.
     
  16. Ignatius J. Reilly

    Ignatius J. Reilly Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,174
    Speaking of folks who need to tighten up their handles, Henry Baddley. Love him as a defender and he’s a serviceable spot up shooter, but I get so nervous when he dribbles. See: his “fast break” last game.

    Kind of blows my mind someone with as much bounce as him is so poor driving, especially if it’s not a line drive along the baseline.


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  17. kmacker69

    kmacker69 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    And back to the old arguments, it's so far off it's impossible to argue unless you ignore the effect and think the people taking the stats are doing it wrong! It's that damn simple! Just sayin"!
     
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  18. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Everyone, please recognize my restraint. That’s all.


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  19. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

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    Give me a break. Someone put together a highlight reel of Fowler's shots this year. He's often the wide open 2nd or 3rd choice who gets the ball passed to him when no one is around due to a double team. That's not offensively impressive. It's a gift.

    Brunk is the opposite. He's often immediately double teamed because he is an offensive threat. He has to actively work to score and earn his points. He's done more work on his drop step move this year than Nate has in 4.
     
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  20. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I'm so glad games are won with points instead of efficiency ratios. It's so weak minded.
     
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