Butler Bulldogs (17-5, 5-4) vs. Villanova (17-4, 7-2) - 2/5

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Jared Grubbs, Feb 5, 2020.

  1. dawg767

    dawg767 Active Member VIP Member

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    I agree with this statement as a generality but there is a lot more to it in my mind.

    In Baldwin's "defense", he played most of the 2nd Half with 3 fouls and much of that time with AT having 4 fouls. I just don't think the Team could have shouldered having both AT and KB with four fouls for the last 8-10 minutes of the game.
     
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  2. WMUDog

    WMUDog Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for your input Novachap. I thought that was one hell of a game between to excellent teams. I couldn't believe how those 3s were dropping one after another the last 5 minutes. I thought we were defending well. I kept saying "no way is this one going in."
    welp!!!
     
  3. WMUDog

    WMUDog Well-Known Member

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    That is kind of what I am hoping. Tucker fills in for McD. Does that seem like a possibility? I don't mean just as a starter but can Tucker be the contributor next year that Sean is this year?
     
  4. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

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  5. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    I’m not saying that we won because of our 3’s, I’m saying if we miss 3 more or even a couple more we’re not thinking “what a great game” we’re thinking “our defense is a big problem”.

    The ingredients for us to get beaten pretty easily were in place last night. We just executed really well in our half court offense and the shots went in.


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  6. godogs91

    godogs91 Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking more in the first half. He didn't get his first foul until the final minute.

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  7. ButlerGrad1111

    ButlerGrad1111 Active Member

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    Some of the shots Nova was hitting towards the end of the game we’re really tough shots. Without those butler wins by 10 IMO


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  8. Michdog

    Michdog Active Member

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    As mentioned already, Sean’s aggressive drives to the hoop along with his mid-range game last night was huge. I also think that was a reason we ended up with more success with the inside game. I know AT being on the floor was probably the biggest factor, but Sean being more than a 3 point shooter helped the Bryce boys as well.
     
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  9. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Again, though, i just don’t see the point in thinking “what if Butler shot below average” without also considering that the opposition shot particularly well.

    In virtually any game, if the opposition gets 12 more points than expected from 3 (based on season average and number of attempts) and Butler shoots below average, of course they’re gonna lose just about every time and everyone is going to be upset.

    And again, if Nova shoots average from three last night - not below average, but average - they score 1.09 points per possession. That’s not a great might defensively, but against a really good offense, that is by no means bad.


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    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  10. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Butler recorded their second worst defensive performance of the season in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency.

    The following events also occurred last night: We had more turnovers than our opponent, we shot fewer free throws, forced our fewest amount of turnovers in ten years worth of data, failed to record a steal for the first time in ten years, had fewer offensive rebounds, and a worse 3 pt percentage.

    Over the last ten years, Prior to last night in games where we have more turnovers, fewer free throws, a worse 3 pt%, and fewer offensive rebounds we were 1-6, with an average margin of -15.4. The lone win came by 1 point on 1/6/2012 when Butler beat Wright State 63-62 at the Nutter center.

    Some games that share these same characteristics are: the big easy tourney game vs pc last spring, the big easy tourney game against nova the previous year, the xavier game in Cinci in 2015 where they won by 17, and both Louisville games from 2010 and 2011.

    In other words, some of our most notorious performances of all times shared some many of the same internals as last night. Our 3 point shooting percentage in those games is 28%. Our overall fg % in those games is 42%. Our 3 point shooting percentage last night was 46% and our fg percentage was 58%.

    It’s not at all an oversimplification to say that shooting well kept this game from looking really ugly, when the comparable games have typically been blowouts where we shoot really poorly.


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  11. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I got that piece of it. The "Gosh damn" is what I thought was hilarious. I mean you took the time to find a different word for God but ...
     
  12. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    What was Nova’s comparable defensive efficiency numbers ? ​
     
  13. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean by comparable defensive efficiency?


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  14. Dawgedd

    Dawgedd Well-Known Member

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    ugh, it is an oversimplification. Now a total of 8 games with your 'comparable dataset' and we won 2 of those. Hardly a clear case. (and treating these categories as +/- is likely problematic).

    Many of those stats you point out were ones where Villanova was only marginally better and in some cases correlated (e.g. fewest turnovers and no steals). Yes, we had more turnovers than Nova but we only had 6 (compared to 3 for Nova). Yes we shot 6 fewer free throws but only lost 2 pts in this area to Nova. Yes, we shot worse from 3pt, but still shot well (46% v 53).

    Yes, it was our worst defensive performance but it was against one of the best offensive teams in the country who shot better than they usually do from 3. I also don't see the value in only looking at one side of the ledger (our solid 3 pt shooting) and not noting that Nova shot well above their season average on 3s (which, if taken in to account points to our defense being OK).

    Just like shooting well was a key reason that we won, you could just as easily say that Nova shooting above average from 3 kept them in the game. Moreover, we led the vast majority of the game (including I believe the entire second half save for a couple of ties), so if Nova just goes 3/5 on its last 5 threes, we win more comfortably.
     
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  15. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Generally your criticisms are very fair. One thing to note is that adjusted efficiency accounts for the ability of your opponent, so allowing 100 points to nova would be a much better performance than allowing 100 points to Southern. So even with the adjustment it was our worst.

    And you’re right, you can’t just treat the categories as a +/- when you look at them individually. What you can do, however, is look at them collectively. And when you see that you have 8 games and you remember at least 7 of them and look at the days from those games, you can look at it and say reasonably conclude that the combination of those events is emblematic of a team that’s having a really bad day OR that getting outplayed in all of those categories makes it really hard to be competitive.

    Additionally, the inclusion of the details is part of a separate illustration of how our shooting covered up some areas of concern, which is why it was kept separate from the discussion of game comps.


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  16. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

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    My wife hates the GD. Willis grew up in the South...


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  17. NCJon

    NCJon Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I live in the South and was raised by Southerners. I get why he changed "God." It's doing that but not changing "damn" that I found amusing. As my grandma would say, that don't make a lick of sense.

    And gosh darn it, I'm sorry I quoted it now that I am having to explain my thought in this level of detail. I guess I was the only one amused.
     
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  18. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

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    My brain is fried from work this week. It’s been a long decade.


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  19. Hinkle Magic2

    Hinkle Magic2 Well-Known Member

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    ->What a shot by Baldwin. Can't get enough of that Gus Johnson call. (I was sitting diagonally from where he shot it, and the ball's trajectory looked good from the start--wish I had recorded it in retrospect).
    ->McD was the steadying force throughout the game
    -> All 5 of our starters made big contributions (Golden went on a second half tear for a bit), but our bench was nonexistent
    -> Bey and Gillespie killed us, but they hit some tough three pointers that we contested well. I also think Baldwin with three fouls and Thompson with 4 fouls late hurt our ability to defend Gillespite. We couldn't be nearly as aggressive and physical with him, and the only alternative was putting in Baddley on him --but who do you bench then with all starters playing well (and Baddley not showing much offensively last night)?
    -> Also loved that Jordan did not call a timeout on the final possession. Didn't allow Jay Wright to set up a half court defense, deny or trap Baldwin, put his best defenders in, and kept Gillespie on the court with four fouls--who also happened to guard Baldwin on the final play I believe.
     
  20. dawg767

    dawg767 Active Member VIP Member

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    Good post, especially the last bullet point about no time out on last possession. I'm pretty sure a time out would have resulted in Lavall 'drawing up' the exact same Kamar iso play -- a fact that Jay Wright would no doubt be aware of and adjust as you note above. KB probably would not have gotten that shot over a taller wing defender.
     
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