Butler Bulldogs (18-7) at Creighton Bluejays (12-14) - 2/16

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Jared Grubbs, Feb 15, 2015.

  1. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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  2. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

    Money:
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    Opening line was Butler -3.5, now -2.5 to -3. That values the loss of Chrabascz at about 2.5-3 points, which is what I would have guessed. (For reference, the very best players are worth about 5 pts to their team.)
     
  3. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User VIP Member

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  4. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    Because of what happened yesterday, tomorrow scares the **** out of me. They played us tough the first time, now we're in Omaha without our full army. Gonna be tough.
     
  5. Nildogg

    Nildogg Active Member

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    Creighton has lost a lot of close games early in conference and seems to have been playing better as of late. On the road, quick turnaround, this feels like a loss to me in our first game without AC.
    Hope im wrong because we are going to need every W we can get heading into the tourney.
     
  6. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    This game scares me as well. Last matchup, we forced them into 19 turnovers at Hinkle and still managed to win by just 3. Hopefully we can do a better job at running them off the 3-pt line than we did against Nova.

    Look for Rose to have a big bounce-back game. He had 18 pts, 10 reb, and 6 assists last matchup. We are going to need a performance like that from him again tonight.

    Finally, I'll be interested to see what the starting lineup looks like tonight. I'm guessing Etherington gets the start, but I bet Chrab's minutes are split pretty evenly between AE and Wideman, with Davis getting a little burn too.

    You hate to say this game is a must-win, but with 4 of the next 6 game on the road and still with games against Xavier, Georgetown, and Providence left. This is as close to a can't-lose game as we have left.
     
  7. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    This is a weird game from a handicapping perspective. From a talent standpoint, Butler without Chrabascz should be (and is) about a 2.5 point favorite. However, the first game without him on a short turnaround could lead to a much worse result than expected. OTOH, the team could easily get a one-game emotional boost from a "rally for the missing man" motivation and get an easy win. In other words, variance is higher than usual (and is already much higher than most people realize).

    From a matchup perspective, I think Creighton is one of the least bad BE teams to play with Chrabascz. They are pretty poor on defense, so his posting-up threat is less needing than average to free up others on offense. They also don't have a major post threat, so his post defense will be less missed than average.

    In the first game, no one from Butler played particularly well. Jones had a solid game, and I see no reason why he can't have another even without Chrabs drawing some attention inside to limit helping. He'll need to be a bit more ready to drive and pass, but he has shown a willingness to do so in BE play. Chrabascz and Dunham had bad games. Barlow's defense was great, but his offense was quite poor. Woods was OK, but didn't get his usual rebounds. I expect better showings from all 3 of Barlow, Dunham, and Woods this time. Butler as a team will need to do a better job rebounding - they only won the boards 38-36 the first time, and Woods had only 5. They only shot 34% in the win; that certainly should (and must if they want to win) improve even with Chrabs out.
     
  8. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Goodman predicted significant struggles in the remainder of the regular season for Butler in his espn insider piece this morning because of the Chrabsence, says we will enter the dance on the 8 or 9 line.

    Tonight is an incredibly important game!
     
  9. Albick

    Albick Well-Known Member

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    I agree that it's a tough situation: quick turnaround on the road after an emotional loss, with a team that doesn't have a deep bench having just lost one of its starters. But we have some awfully tough players, and I can't imagine that Barlow or Rosey will allow the team to see its hard work for 25 games go down the drain just because the chips are down.

    "With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour."
     
  10. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    The term "must win" always makes my skin crawl. But a short turnaround, minus a starter, on the road in a hostile environment? It would be a huge win and really send a message nationally. Bouncing back from a heart breaking loss is always tough, losing one of your best on top of it super sucks. I'd say I'm more concerned with this game than any other we've played yet.
     
  11. kac12568

    kac12568 Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking at this from a positive perspective. AE is going to have to slow down a little bit, in order to avoid getting 3 fouls in 45 seconds....... Which I think will help him on defense and the offensive end. Sometimes his motor gets him in trouble.

    It will also (potentially) give Davis/Wideman/Martin more minutes which will strengthen our bench before the tournament.

    When life gives you lemons....... make:
    Absolut-Pears-Lemonade
    1 Part Absolut Pears
    1 Dash Lemon Juice
    Lemon-Lime Soda
    1 Wedge Lemon
     
  12. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Doing some KenPom perusing during lunch: One of Creighton's biggest weaknesses is their 3-point line defense. It is atrocious - nearly the worst in the NCAA. In Big East play, Barlow is 28-58 (!!) from the 3-point line. They'll obviously be keying on Dunham, so look for Barlow to have some good three-point opportunities and be the difference tonight.
     
  13. firedupkaren

    firedupkaren Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    3PT Defense is a pretty silly stat, imo.

    Look at Butler's rank, 18th in the Nation in Opponent's 3 PT%...yet it's the reason we lost Saturday. It's really random when you think of all the variables included.
     
  14. DawgsfoLife

    DawgsfoLife Member

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    The people I want hitting some 3s are Martin and AE. They will both get some open looks tonight, can almost guarantee it. If they hit them, I think we win by around 5. If not, oh boy...
     
  15. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    I've heard this argument before. It may be right (is there a study on it somewhere that someone can post?), I really don't know. I'd like to read more about it. But my thought is that even if it is partly (even mostly?) random, it is certainly not entirely random. Hilliard hitting that last three, for instance, was hardly random. It was a defensive breakdown. So even if there is some randomness to the difference in being ranked, say, 200th (34.6%) in 3 point defense versus 250th (35.8%), at some point it can tell you something. If you are ranked 341st, as Creighton is, you are bad at defending the three-point line. On the flip side, UK isn't 2nd in 3P defense because teams randomly forget how to shoot against them.
     
  16. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Sure would be nice to see Martin find it. He hit more threes in Knoxville on December 14th than he has in the 2+ months since then.
     
  17. firedupkaren

    firedupkaren Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    True, I just hate the stat... If Hilliard's shot rims out, that doesn't make Butler any better at defending the three, but it would look that way on paper.
     
  18. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

    Money:
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    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

    In short, there is some degree of predictability in the stat, but a lot less than you might expect. The flip side is preventing opponents from taking 3s is a highly predictive stat (i.e. if you are good at defending the 3, opponents won't take many since they become low %age looks). And Creighton is quite poor at that too, so I think it is safe to say they don't defend the 3 (or anything really) very well.
     
  19. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Thanks for posting. This is helpful. Surprised I hadn't seen it before.
     
  20. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

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    I hope to see them make as many 8-10 foot jumpers or drive to the rim. One of the reasons AC is so valuable is because he's shooting 54% from inside the arc.
     

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