Butler Bulldogs (22-9, #5 seed) vs. Providence (19-12, #4 seed), March 12

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by ButlerNut, Mar 8, 2020.

  1. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    General Discussion for the Quarterfinal game of Big East Tournament between #5 Butler and #4 Providence

    Game is scheduled for 2:30 PM Thursday, March 12. Will follow Creighton and St. John's/Georgetown game at noon.

    Providence playing hotter than anyone in conference right now (except maybe Creighton or St. John's).

    Dawgs should be ranked tomorrow and coming into the game riding a 3 game winning streak, a last second 3 to win at X, and the joy of sweeping X.

    LET'S GO DAWGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  2. cornette33

    cornette33 Well-Known Member

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    Pipkins Vs AT. That's a huge matchup. Held him in check the first time.
     
  3. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Our strategy to foul Pipkin in the second half against Providence in the last game didn’t work out well. We should never have lost that game.
     
  4. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Random stat I noticed:

    Providence closed Big East play on a six game winning streak. During that stretch, Providence shot 38.5% or better from three in each game. In their previous 25 games, they hit that mark 8 total times, and they averaged just 33% from deep on the year, despite this hot stretch. Their shooting has been terrific of late, especially relative to the rest of the season. No idea if they found something or just got luckily hot at the perfect time. Maybe some of both.

    Conversely, opponents in this stretch hit 33% or better in just 1 of the 6 games (which was Xavier, oddly enough, which went 6-16 earlier this week). Opponents shot better than 33% in 11 of the previous 25 games. Again, not clear if Providence had some good fortune down the stretch or found something. Maybe some of both.

    Regardless, the offensive and defensive 3 point percentages have been a major factor in this win streak of theirs.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2020
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  5. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    This is good stuff. And have to agree it's probably a little bit of both. They're not lacking in talent, but I do think playing downhill suits their offense. Have to hope Butler comes out and grinds their offense to a halt early.
     
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  6. seadawg

    seadawg Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I would expect AT to neutralize Pipkin effectively and see this as a toss-up game.
     
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  7. Hinkle Magic2

    Hinkle Magic2 Well-Known Member

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    Providence has had our number more often than not recently, but I like our chances in this one.
     
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  8. godogs91

    godogs91 Well-Known Member

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    Looking forward to it. KenPom has Butler -2/58%, Torvik has it basically as a pick at -<1/50%, ESPN has it at Butler 60%
     
  9. noltar

    noltar Well-Known Member

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    I want so bad for the Dawgs to grind these fools into dust on Thursday.
     
  10. BURph92

    BURph92 Well-Known Member

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    Since the first NET rankings poll was released in Dec Providence has moved up 110 spots from 146 to 36.


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  11. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Outside of the recent DePaul game Providence has not been winning by big margins. During BE conference five of their players take the bulk of their threes with percentages as indicated - Diallo( 39%), Pipkins ( 33%), Duke ( 37%) Reeves( 41%) and White ( 25%). Pipkins takes twice as many attempts as anyone else and 70% of his attempts are threes. He is also a 86% free throw shooter.

    Pipkins single handily beat us at Hinkle which I blame entirely on the coaching staff. We kept fouling him at the end of the game even though he is their best free throw shooter. Pipkins scored 22 points on 4-9 from three and 10-10 free throws. He only attempted one shot inside the arc. Hopefully the coaching staff looks at the last game and the numbers and don’t repeat their game plan.

    If they hit threes they win. If not we win.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2020
  12. dawg767

    dawg767 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Pipkins FT% has kinda cratered since Butler game. As I recall, he was around 96% when Lavall somehow had the squad fouling him exclusively in the final minute.
     
  13. Tiles52

    Tiles52 Active Member

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    I still contend that we don't lose that game at Hinkle if Thompson had been able to play. I must admit that I don't remember what exactly transpired at the end of the game regarding fouling Pipkin; but don't most teams try to get the ball in the hands of their best free throw shooters at the end of the game when the other team has to foul. I can't believe that Pipkin was going to let the ball be out of his hands if at all possible.
     
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  14. noltar

    noltar Well-Known Member

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    If I recall instead of doubling him at the end of the game to deter PC from getting him the inbounds pass, the coaches kept a defender on the inbounder for some bizarre reason.
     
  15. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Another tidbit I’ve been chatting with Dawgs2014 about...

    Despite having a very good defense overall, Providence is among the worst in the entire country at points per possession given up to the ball handler in pick and roll scenarios (9th percentile).

    Butler uses the pick and roll ball handler at a fairly high rate and does so more efficiently than 86 percent of teams. They do this mostly with Baldwin and AT (no surprise there). Thus, AT being out for that game against Prov was particularly damaging and sort of took away a huge opportunity against an otherwise great defense.

    AT and Baldwin being healthy for this one makes me really like this part of this match up. Look for our offense to click a lot better in this game than it did at Hinkle.
     
  16. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Agree but he attempts 70% of his shots from three connecting on 33%. Play the odds. Let him shoot from three unguarded versus putting a then 95% free throw shooter on the line. It was plain dumb with or without AT on the floor.
     
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  17. Shimmy

    Shimmy Active Member

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    I know it's been addressed already, but it's fun now to reminisce on the meltdown this board had after losing to them without AT. Seems so long ago. Other than the Georgetown game (which legitimately stunk) and the DePaul Globetrotters game, I think we can look back and say we won every game we should have expected to win going in.

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  18. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    That game was one of the worst officiated games of the entire season with the refs calling 39 fouls on both teams. Butler also shot 1-14 from three and committed 15 turnovers.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2020
  19. dawg767

    dawg767 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I had a few minutes at lunch today and dug up the following:
    • Pipkins was 25/26 (96.2%) from the line going into Butler game
    • He left the floor 35/36 (97.2%)
    • Pipkins the only Prov player fouled by Butler in the last 31 seconds of the game. He was fouled 3 times and made all 6 obviously.
    Prefer not to relive the end of that game but there is no excuse not doubling or tripling a near 100% FT shooter in that situation. If our coach on the floor (AT) is playing, I promise this would not have occurred. Lavall and Staff was clearly to blame for this oversight in that game especially since the last 31 seconds started with a Butler timeout.

    That said, in spite of our BET and late season history with Providence, I really like our chances against them on Thursday. We are playing far more like the team that handled them easily at the Dunk in January.
     
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  20. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

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    I find it hard to believe we make only one 3-pointer on Thursday. If we do, the "We suck in the BET" storyline will be raging.
     

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