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Jared Grubbs

Butler Bulldogs (3-0) vs Wofford Terriers (2-1) - 11/16

Jared Grubbs, Nov 14, 2019

  1. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Hinkle Fieldhouse
    Fox Sports 2

    Butler Kenpom
    Overall: 26
    Offense: 26
    Defense: 35
    Tempo: 342

    Wofford Kenpom
    Overall: 121
    Offense: 63
    Defense: 241
    Tempo: 316
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
    MBA2003 and kmacker69 like this.
  2. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Looking at our Tempo I would love to see us run more.
  3. JCA 2013

    JCA 2013 Active Member

    This is a good chance for the the defense to prove itself. A key is to run them off the 3point line. According to Hoop-Math, they take more than half their shots from behind the line and make them the at 43%. These of course are early season numbers so there is a sample size issue.

    On the other side, BU should be able to shred them.
  4. gmoser1210

    gmoser1210 Well-Known Member

    I hope they bring a live Boston Terrier.

    Do we have any idea how long Smits will be out?
  5. seadawg

    seadawg Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Wofford's facilities are very nice for a small school.
  6. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    That's not really what Tempo is in this context. It is referring to possessions per 40 minutes and is adjusted to the average D1 pace of play. Of the Top 25 Kenpom teams, on 6 appear in the Top 100 for Adjusted Tempo, with Duke the highest at 19 and Virginia the lowest at 353.

    Our defense has a lot more to do with our Tempo than our offense. We have really been grinding teams down to the final seconds of the shot clock, which limits possession for both teams. We have also been running more sets and move the ball more on offense which also uses the clock.

    Tempo, IMO, is rather meaningless and simply indicates whether the game is likely to be high or low scoring.
  7. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Our offense has been pretty slow. Offensive tempo is ranked 341st. Defensive tempo is 218th. I suspect our excellent turnover rate on both sides contribute to that, as turnovers often mean short possessions. Although we do have several forced shot clock violations which would be the opposite.
    bmradio99 and I Am Butler like this.
  8. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    I will have my full preview out later tonight.

    With regards to some of things already said, I use to agree in theory that Butler's defense dictates its pace but statistics do not agree at all. Therefore, I went into a deep film dive after the Minnesota game to search for a trend. My main takeaways simply were that Butler is going to be a deliberate, slow-moving offensive team compared to the rest of the nation. It is too radical of a shift to expect anything else.

    The Dawgs are running more sets this season that take time to develop, which is a good thing, but if they do not pan out, it often becomes an iso opportunity for Thompson as a distributor or KB as a scorer. (To be clear, I really like how the offense is operating). As a result of this and the fact that the team only looks to run in transition when they have numbers rather than off every single miss, Butler's offense will be one of the slowest in the country this season. McDermott and Tucker are essentially the only two snipers on the roster that have the green light in the first 10 seconds of possessions. If anyone else takes a shot that early...I think the fanbase would start the grumble at not waiting for something better.

    Through three games, the Dawgs rank 341st in average offensive possession length at 20.6 while 218th in def poss length at 17.4. Some of this can definitely be attributed to the style of opposition but I expect this trend to continue even with a larger sample size arriving in the coming weeks. In fact, considering Butler's defensive philosophy, the team's tempo might even slow down moving forward. Will be interesting to monitor this (as Coach Jordan's use of his bench) with the majority of the roster back healthy.

    Also, with regards to the impact of tempo, in general, I think it has a major impact in a lot of ways. The best coaches in the country typically prioritize the same certain aspects of the game (turnovers, 3PAr, etc.) that have an impact on tempo each year as they relate to their individual coaching philosophies. Pace, in my opinion, is one of the best statistics to actually show the style that a team plays year in and year out because coaches are often so consistent in how they want to play. It's why we always hear about UVA (Bennett) playing slow and North Carolina (Williams) playing fast. That is, at the core, who they are as teams and programs with those coaches at the helm. Tempo might not showcase a lot on the surface but it does a nice job encapsulating a team's overarching philosophy, imo.
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  9. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    The slower tempo right now can also be attributed to how short handed we have been. Don't want to get into a track meet when you only have 6 players...
  10. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    I didn't even look at the breakdown. That's interesting. Obviously the Minnesota game was played at a snail's pace. I'd imagine playing the first couple games shorthanded impacted the pace of the offense well.

    Regardless, I've never seen much correlation between playing fast and winning games. Seems like the better teams typically have lower AdjT on Kenpom. I'd be curious if there is a correlation either way.
  11. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    Do you know if there is any correlation to tempo and success?
    NCJon likes this.
  12. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    I have my own thoughts on this but.....I'm working on a statistical analysis of this exact question. Teams have been successful at all kinds of pace and at radical ends of the spectrum as well, but I have a bunch of spreadsheets that I am tracking this on to determine if there is any statistical significance with regard to tempo vs. success in regular season, postseason, and both. This'll probably be a season-long study for me (takes time to do historical stuff as well) and I'll do a write-up in the offseason.
    fdr, BHayden, bmradio99 and 4 others like this.
  13. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Wofford won an NCAAT game last year, and only lost to Kentucky by 6 in the second (third) round.

    They lost 2 starters only.

    Don't sleep on them.
    Insane Dawg likes this.
  14. Dawgedd

    Dawgedd Well-Known Member

    I don't believe tempo and success were correlated to any significant degree. I remember reading an analysis (maybe 538?) that specifically looked at the question by focusing in on Virgina and in their lack of postseason success (obviously last year is a notable exception). The gist is that slower temp can lead to higher variance in expected results because fewer possessions leads to tighter games
    I Am Butler likes this.
  15. CarmelDawg23

    CarmelDawg23 Well-Known Member

    Agreed they should not be slept on, but they lost their 2 leading scorers, including Fletcher McGee, one of the best MM players in the country.
    UDDawg likes this.
  16. BulldogsAllTheWay

    BulldogsAllTheWay Well-Known Member

    After the IUPUI game, Meyer hinted on the radio that this team will play at slower pace. Said something to the effect that they’re finding it works better for this team

    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
    bmradio99 likes this.
  17. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

    And I think that works with this personnel. Plus the injuries. I've always thought the more methodical we play, they better our results. I see a need and a time to speed things up here and there but we're not built for that. Glad to hear they are adjusting.
  18. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    I don't disagree. McGee was a stud for them. But the entire team (minus the 3 seniors [one didn't start]) know how to win. Finished with 30 wins last year (before you @ me, I know that was in the SoCon). I'm just saying this is a good test and not a "freebie" game.
  19. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

    I watched a lottttt of Wofford last season and a couple of their early-season games this season. (Let's just say my "opponent intel" section of the preview for this game is *not* short.)

    I loved watching Fletcher Magee go to work...but he wasn't their biggest loss this offseason. They have guards (and they are very good). Cam Jackson's departure, though, is harder to replace with their personnel.

    Wofford is a good mid-major, 100%, but they lost three starters and their head coach. I really like their coaching hire (internal promotion) but Mike Young is an offensive mind that not many can replace. Their starting "4", Trevor Stumpe, is a good player and was a full-time starter in 2017-18 before playing only nine games last season due to injury but only stands at 6-foot-5. Watch for Butler to dominate in the frontcourt, particularly with Nze.

    I'll have more of my complete thoughts in my game preview, but Cam Jackson was a MONSTER loss.
    Shimmy, BHayden, NCJon and 2 others like this.
  20. Brett

    Brett Active Member

    I have been following Wofford since last year. They are a little undersized this year but they play with discipline, don't turn the ball over,
    good passing and often have 4 - good 3 pt. shooters on the floor at any time. There 7'-1" backup center is injured (like Smits) and their
    next tallest is 6-9 from there it goes down to 6-7 and 6-6. If Fletcher Magee had even had a bad game and made 25% of his threes, they would have
    have beaten Kentucky. They beat Seton Hall in the first round. This will be a good test for our guards and wings. This is a team we don't want
    to sleep on and for sure we don't want them to get hot from 3 pt. range because they can rack up points in a hurry. GO DAWGS!!
    I Am Butler likes this.

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