• This Event was settled Nov 24, 2018
  • This Event is over and no longer taking wagers
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Jared Grubbs

Butler Bulldogs (4-1) vs Florida Gators (3-2) - 11/23

Jared Grubbs, Nov 23, 2018

Settled
  1. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
    $4,186
    I'm not taking sides. I'm just pointing out December 1 is a long way off.

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  2. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $7,053
    Last question: so is it your position is that the synergy on/off data is incorrect? That it is based on flawed methodology? In short, your take is that they are not accurately measuring when he is on and off the floor and how many points the team scores and allows?



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  3. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

    Money:
    $15,957
    Having better +\- efficiency numbers means the teams numbers were better with that player on the court. It doesn’t mean the team is better with that player on the court. There a dozen different reasons why those 2 might not correlate. There are also a dozen reasons why they might. Numbers never lie. People lie using numbers. It’s ok if someone doesn’t believe a players +\- numbers are indicative of their performance.


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  4. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    If the team is performing more efficiently with player X on the court, the team is performing better with player X on the court, essentially by definition (unless it’s suddenly controversial to suggest that the point of basketball is to score as many points per possession as possible and allow as few as possible).

    If your point is that player X’s presence may not necessarily be the *cause* of the team’s better performance when he’s on the floor, of course I agree. However, it is patently absurd to summarily dismiss a season plus of data suggesting a link between player X and better team performance without offering any alternative explanation for why the team performs better when he’s on the floor. In other words, it’s reasonable to be open to the possibility that the team performing better with Fowler on the floor has some explanation other than the simplest one - that he’s responsible for the better performance and he’s simply a good player in unappreciated ways. But until that explanation is offered, it is illogical to fully commit to rejecting a causal link without having any alternative explanation nor having any interest in finding one.




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    Last edited: Nov 27, 2018
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  5. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    This all has become like a celebrity jeopardy contestant on Saturday night live


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  6. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,119
    My biggest issue with relying on these numbers as sole evidence for a players talent is that they poorly identify the "how and why". A season and a half of college basketball is a lot on the surface, but because of the number of players involved and the combination of players in/out at any given time, it's not quite as significant as you might think. Players like Martin and Baldwin rarely leave the game, so their "out" numbers are certainly not significant.

    When you consider how a team functions offensively and how shot distribution changes based on the rotation on the floor, it's hard to isolate individual player performance vs team performance, which is what these numbers truly capture. Its undeniable that the team performed better offensively with Fowler on the floor, but "how and why" is not clear. Is it because Fowler does things to make the team better, or is it that when he is on the floor, the better players are using more of the possessions? Does the the fact that Wideman is perceived by his peers as a better player result in him touching the ball more often when the touches should remain with others? Is the answer to "how do we best improve the team" simply insert Fowler more often, or change how the team plays when Wideman is on the floor?

    I'd hazard a guess that rarely does a teams most talented player perform the best on +/- PPP because they are taking a high number of the low percentage shots that result from good defensive teams. There is so much more information needed in order to to properly evaluate these players. I've said several times before, but basketball has a long way to go with sabermetrics.

    Using these numbers to judge player performance is akin to using Runs/RBI's to judge a baseball player.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2018
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  7. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    Everything you’re saying here is right except for your conclusion, which is not actually wrong, but incomplete.
    You can’t use just these numbers to draw meaningful conclusions. But you can use these and more clearly articulated numbers as to the why. (Ie what change, what do we do better with Nate, what do we do worse)
    Also, when you look at these, and then numbers like Ken Pom’s stuff, you can start to see a trend forming; Nate Fowler is a lot better player than our eyes tell us he is.
    Like for example, I saw data saying We do better on defense than when TW was in. My brain said that’s crazy. My eyes said that’s crazy. So I started watching them more closely akin to what you’d do when you watch tape. Nate, while not overly physically gifted, is ALWAYS playing, and always in position. Tyler fell asleep quite a bit opening holes. You start to see the why, which I started looking for when the numbers didn’t agree with my intuition.

    The Joey Brunk comparison is so great. Who LOVES watching Nate, and who doesn’t love watching Joey? Joey is so much more active, exciting, he’s a great rebounder and Fowler is bad right? Well, Fowler actually has better rebounding percentage numbers this year.

    Data is a balance in a check and balance system. We don’t have good enough data yet in college for it to be more than that. I think that where you see surprising statistical results you have to go back and understand what’s causing them and then use that understanding in your decision making.


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  8. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,119
    I dont disagree with anything you've said. Basketball, especially College Basketball, has a long way to go to catch MLB in terms of using statistics to fully understand their game. There are just to many moving parts to account for in the flow of a basketball game. Eventually, advanced computer models will catch up, but they aren't there yet, which leaves us to build upon the data by using our eyes and, admittedly, mine aren't good enough to answer all of these questions. I love the college game and have a strong grasp advanced analytics, especially in terms of baseball, but I'm not a basketball coach and wont pretend to be.
     
  9. ButlerGoalie

    ButlerGoalie Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,994
    I'm not an expert in advanced stats for basketball, but allow me to make a comparison to a sport that I do know quite a bit more about.

    In hockey, a similar stats-based argument can be made for a backup goaltender that only plays once in every four games. Based on a smaller sample size, let's say that this backup's main goaltending stats, Goals Against Average and Save Percentage are better than the starter's. Let's further suppose that he's winning 75% of his games while the starter is only winning 60% of his games. You might take these statistics on face value and make the argument that the backup is better or should play more (and he might be and should), but you are missing so many other factors that could be in play here. Does his defense play harder and take less risks knowing that he's not the starter? That would equate in less expected Goals Against stats. Is the backup playing against lesser competition? Does the added rest factor into it? How about the opponent? Does his lack of major game play mean that opponents don't yet have a book on him?

    As in hockey, it's always important to have a good backup in college basketball. I don't know about you, but when Fowler went down in the first minute of the Florida game, my heart was in my throat because while I'm encouraged by Brunk's strong start, I'm not sure how this team would react with no backup at the 5. I really don't want to get into the middle of this, but I thought I'd share some experience in hockey that might shed some light.
     
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  10. bmradio99

    bmradio99 Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
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    Exactly this - I'd have the same reaction if Brunk were unavailable and Nate was on an island at the 5. We need 'em both right now.
     
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  11. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    Butler Goalie, I think there is an element of truth to what you’re saying, but I think in basketball it’s harder to identify variables that would skew the data. Like Kamar spends more time playing against and with starters than Henry Baddley does, but he also spends more time against and with backups. It’s hard to intelligently hypothesize that Henry spends a larger portion of his time against and with worse lineups than Kamar because he plays enough minutes where as long as the starters play the majority of the minutes, he’s still going to face more starters than not.

    What I’m trying to say is that at a certain threshold in basketball (and I don’t think it’s very high), competition and lineup based factors should ultimately be a wash. Now especially in college you can’t compare using unbalanced analysis of a player on one team to that of another, (Put Kamar in the MEAC and his numbers get better but he’s not a better player) but within the same team in this instance I think we can rule out many of those hockey confluences.


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  12. ButlerGoalie

    ButlerGoalie Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,994
    No, of course, there isn't a direct correlation. For instance, the on the fly line changes make it much more difficult to track and react to opponent's lineup than in basketball where you have to wait to a dead ball to alter the lineup, for instance. I was simply trying to show how in every sport there might be more going on than what our current statistical tracking can model that might be having an impact.
     
  13. MSUDawg

    MSUDawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $1,122
    Yes, I'm not sure why I can't get fired up over this continuous argument, I enjoy watching both of them play and I think they are both very valuable.
     
  14. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    Right, line changes were the biggest challenge I saw in drawing parallels. Does each line tend to play the same amount night in and night out or does it vary on an individual game basis? I don’t know enough about hockey to know they answer to that.


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  15. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $2,589
    It’s like a wife. Can only pick one at a time. Those are the rules.


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  16. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,088
    I do know Joey was dinged at the beginning of the year having to be in at the end and of game situations where the defense just lets in baskets to end the game that Nate does not get dinged on. That being said, as much I hate watching Nate airball layups and butter finger can of corn passes and get bullied by 6 foot guards. This team needs both of them healthy to just field a top of the Big East team. No big can and should be playing more than 30 minutes effectively at the college level. We need what both bring, and as a coach I do love how Nate seals his defenders for drives, and would love video tape on that, because it is a lost art.
     
  17. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,653
    Talk about lost art there are many fundamental things players don't do well or consistently that just frustrates the hell out of me. I don't understand why coaches don't insist on or teach blocking out, putting a body on someone, meet a pass- don't play on your heels, don't dribble unless you are going somewhere, don't bring the ball down to your waist after a rebound, catch the ball with two hands whether it be a rebound or a pass, head fakes, shot fakes, ball fakes, proper shooting technique, dribbling with your head up, how to shoot a hook shot, free throw shooting, shooting a jump shot or a myriad of other things.
     
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  18. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $3,088
    But hey they look athletic so lets offer a full ride scholarship education ;)
     
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  19. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $12,653
    NBA is similar. If they are athletic, fast, big and can dunk they have a good chance of getting a contract.
     
  20. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $4,119
    I get the frustration, but I also understand why coaches would value athleticism over fundamentals. One can be taught, the other can't.
     
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