Butler Bulldogs (9-0) at Baylor Bears (7-1) - 12/10

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by bmradio99, Dec 9, 2019.

  1. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    It's not that I think they're playing bad defense - they're definitely not, and I think it's at worst a respectable defense. I'm just not yet sure it's as great as it seems because of how poorly teams are shooting from deep. I'd like to believe that opponents' crappy deep shooting is not luck, and it may not be. But there's reason to believe it is probably a bit lucky, and if so, I'm not sure how much the defense falls when the water finds its level.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
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  2. Dale Denton

    Dale Denton Member

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    Baylor is one of the best shooting teams in basketball? They sure didn’t look like it.
     
  3. bwesson15

    bwesson15 Well-Known Member

    I'm pretty curious why Golden hasn't took a 3 in the past 3 games he hasn't even looked for it.

    Sent from my SM-N960U using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
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  4. jvoigt

    jvoigt Active Member

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    i just checked Kenpom... Not only are we up to #11 in the country, we're now projected to WIN the Big East regular season with a 12-6 record. Villanova and Seton Hall are projected to tie for 2nd at 11-7.
     
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  5. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Opponents are shooting 26% from three which is bad. Could be luck over ten games. Of the six power schools we have played only Stanford shot better against us at 45% than their season average of 41%. Ole Miss hit their season average of 32%. Minn shot 26% versus 34% season. The others were fairly below their season average including Baylor at 22% against us versus 36% on the year.

    Without looking at the numbers I would bet we give up more twos ( therefore higher % mares) than our opponents average on the season. Why? I would bet because we are focused more on defending the three and our bigs aren’t enforcers.
     
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  6. Staxawax

    Staxawax Well-Known Member

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    At the 3:50 mark it was 53-48. So to be precise Baylor went scoreless the last 3:50 of the game. We scored a whopping 4 points.
     
  7. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    We made up 9 points in the second half against the #11 team in the county, on their homeport, so something was working, but I'm skeptical that holding the opponent to 19 points in a half is sustainable. I guess my point is we held the opponent to 19 points in the second half, but scored just 1.13 ppm over the last 8 minutes. Which area are you more likely to be able to improve?

    And regarding the difference in ppm for the game (1.3) vs ppm over the last 8 minutes (1.13), maybe there were, but I don't recall any blown layups or dunks in the last 8 minutes. In other words, the 1.3 is somewhat artificially low and it's still better than the last 8 minutes.
     
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  8. Bulldogs260

    Bulldogs260 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Wow didn’t realize that. That cannot continue we need someone to step up. That guy should be tucker he has the skill/mindset to do it he needs the looks. I think it’s fair to say we wish the staff would give him more run but also say he needs to earn it as well. Hopefully as season goes along we have a 3 man punch To close games in tucker KB and Sean. Maybe add golden to the mix for a big shot here or there


    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
  9. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    If this were the case, you would expect that our 3FGA/FGA ratio to be lower than average, but instead, it's quite a bit higher than average, ranking 249th. In other words, teams are shooting a lot of threes against us, relative to average. If we were focusing on locking down the perimeter and forcing teams inside, you'd think teams would be shooting a lot of 2s.
     
  10. ButlerNut

    ButlerNut Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    OMG! Thank goodness this isn't last year. If this is how you all react after a loss at #11 (for the first loss of the year), I don't know what to say.

    It's over. Move on. Prepare for the future. A couple games coming up to get things right and then a tough test against Purdue. You are all getting divided on the 10th game of the season.
     
  11. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    It was 51-49 at the 4 minute mark, so we scored 3 points over the last 4 minutes. Baylor scored their last bucket with 3:42 left.

    Anyway you slice it, not an example of offensive efficiency.
     
  12. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

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    You have the NBA and analytics to thank there as more than ever 3 is greater than 2, shocking I know, but that's where metrics go, it's better to take a deep contested 3 than a mid range open 20 footer. Watching the first 10 games we are forcing a ton of late shot clock and or highly contested rushed 3's more so than I've seen from Butler's defenses in a long time. The game plans have been solid they are leaving the correct shooters open and running off the better shooters. You can see the difference from the sideline when say we left Locke open a couple times in the first half against Florida the reaction from the bench vs leaving Blackshear, Nembhard, Lewis. Same for Baylor the looks Jared Butler, and Mecai got in the first 10 minutes vs the second half were night and day. I think that shows you how well the team and coaches are preparing and knowing the other teams personnel. I'd much rather leave someone open who is unproven to beat me vs the proven guy, at least until they've proven they can beat me consistently there.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
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  13. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    We give up a boat load of threes like you pointed out. That will be an issue in the big east. Much bigger than the non con we have faced. I really noticed it against Florida, how many good looks they got. Which, they can't shoot so whatever, but that's not a winning recipe once conference play starts. We need to tighten up the perimeter no question.

    Baylor also shot poorly but got their looks. Maybe that's the scheme, let them shoot their way out of ballgames? It has worked thus far but that is a dangerous game to play.
     
  14. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Good point. So perhapsStanford was lucky to make 45% of their threes against Butler rather than their usual 41% and the other five were unlucky.
     
  15. Dawgedd

    Dawgedd Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if this data is accessible but Im pretty sure its available for NBA and would help address estar's points. Are we exceptionally good at forcing late shot clock threes, 3s to shooters that aren't that good, or contested ones? Im pretty sure synergy data tracks how contested shots are (but I know there are caveats to how good this tracking is).

    I think the upside with our defense would be this: yes, team may be taking too many 3 point shots but if you could normalize it by how many have been taken late in the shot clock, by individual 3 pt shooting percentage (not team), and by strenght of our contest, then the numbers make sense (or are close).
    The downside, like you have pointed out, is that we have gotten somewhat lucky and this will regress.
     
  16. estar20dawg

    estar20dawg Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    That regression is assuming that Butler is allowing the 3 point shooters their opponent want to shoot the 3 are the actual ones taking the 3's. We are consistently allowing guys shooting well under 35% to actually be taking the "open" shots. I really think we are downplaying the preparation at least I'm assuming that's been the preparation of our coaching staff and players. It's what other teams have done to us in the past years, make AT shoot the 3, Baldwin last year, Baddley, Fowler, David. You want the non shooters to get the open looks on rotational defenses and take away your McD's, Tuckers... You can live with allowing open looks to say AT vs McD and that's what are scheming has been and then recover assuming they don't jack up the 3 which looks like other teams are just jacking away from deep which accounts for the uptick in 3 point shots attempted
     
  17. Dawgedd

    Dawgedd Well-Known Member

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    I specifically mentioned that point above--I'm just saying that I havent seen the data (and could be swayed either way, depending on the data). It seems to be you are assuming that we are forcing desirable 3 pointers when I haven't seen it one way or the other.
     
  18. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I don't have that data, but maybe it exists. Again, it could absolutely be the case that teams are shooting a low percentage because of something we're doing a better job of than most teams that give up a large number of attempts (e.g., like you said, it could be that a lot of attempts are late shot clock heaves, or maybe we're leaving the right guys open and they're taking them, maybe we're tightly contesting, etc.). But it could also be luck. Ten games is a really small sample. We just don't know yet.
     
  19. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

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    This has been my stance all along. You cant simply look at total 3FG, without looking at shot quality. We seem to force a lot of late clock attempts, which typically aren't great looks, though I dont know where to find that kind of data.

    Also, against Florida and Baylor, Butler allowed three sub-30% FG3 shooters to take 17 shots from distance, which they hit just 3. I don't know if that's random or intentional or somewhere in between, but it is certainly a bad use of a teams offensive possessions.
     
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  20. bu2013

    bu2013 Active Member

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    This discussion is like a caricature of what people think Butler fans talk about
     
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