Butler Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by Jared Grubbs, Nov 20, 2012.

  1. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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  2. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    As much as I loved the Chaminade upset, it's going to disappointing if we lose and end up playing a division 2 team. While I firmly believe that Butler can win this game (if the forwards play like they did yesterday but guards shoot the 3 like we expect, I think they will win it), it looks like Chaminade tomorrow is the most likely outcome.
     
  3. pjohnsto2003

    pjohnsto2003 Well-Known Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    Would love to see a Stevens-Groce reunion. Gotta love the BU pedigree in CBB right now...
     
  4. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    I'm looking at some of the stats for UNC, and I'm a little bit surprised. Overall the UNC offense doesn't look that bad, as they are averaging 1.1 points per possession. But it is all offensive rebounding based (they lead the country in offensive rebounds). Their true shooting percent is 50.4%, which is 233rd best in the country, and that is against a very weak schedule. For those who aren't aware, true shooting percent is FG% adjusted for FTs and 3Pt FGs. It is essentially points per shot attempt (x100 to turn it into a percent). For comparison, we know how horrible Butler has been shooting the ball so far, and they rank 242nd at 48.8%. So while I don't see this anywhere, if you were to adjust for strength of schedule you could probably argue UNC has actually been shooting worse than Butler this year.

    That is good news for Butler, because they rank as the 19th best defensive rebounding team in the country right now and have historically been a very good defensive rebounding team. If they can take away 2nd chance opportunities and fast break points (something else Butler does well) the UNC offense might actually become quite stagnant. I think Butler can slow down the tempo and turn this into a typical ugly game and give their shooters a chance to make plays down the stretch to win.
     
  5. butlerfan

    butlerfan New Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    http://blogs.indystar.com/butler/2012/11/20/game-4-preview-north-carolina-maui-semifinal/
     
  6. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    Butler and Saint Louis are both +9 today.
     
  7. jkcdawgs

    jkcdawgs Well-Known Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    http://espn.go.com/blog/north-carolina-basketball/post/_/id/11031/unc-vs-butler-what-to-watch
     
  8. ChiTownDawg

    ChiTownDawg Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    I'll take both UNC and Kansas 11 times out of 10. Should be able to get my Christmas expenses covered betting on those games. I hate to sound negative like Title, but I can't see this game staying single digits long.
     
  9. jkcdawgs

    jkcdawgs Well-Known Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    Watch for Smith to have a monster game. With most of UNC's focus on Dunham and Clarke's shooting Smith will feel more comfortable and will have more room to work his game. Also, Jones can go 1v1 and win most of the time. Watch for him as well. IMO the game will come down to boards and FT's.
     
  10. Jon in NC

    Jon in NC New Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    I'd love to see it, and I hope I'm wrong, but I disagree. I expect Smith's going to have a hard time with Carolina's huge, physical freshman center Joel James. Smith seems to shrink against physical front court players. I'm worried we're going to see another game where Smith is limited by foul trouble.
     
  11. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    At this point I don't really expect anything when it comes to Smith, either positive or negative. I just have no idea what he is going to bring on a given night.
     
  12. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    RE: Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels - 11/20 - 8:00 PM

    Spot on with the whole double digits thing...
     
  13. Dunham for 3

    Dunham for 3 New Member

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    That is what shooting the ball can do for you! You win games you are not expected too. Great spacing, allows offense rebounds and makes your bigs look better than they are. Great win !!!
     
  14. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    That should keep Butler's recruiting profile high for a little while. Lots of Butler targets were tweeting about the game.
     
  15. Dog77

    Dog77 New Member

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    I hope Stevens and Graves are on the phone with Bluiett, Hall, Lyles,and a few other 2014 & 2015 guys this evening.
     
  16. Bulldog Grit

    Bulldog Grit New Member

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    FT's win games! I think we only missed one on the front end of a one-and-one by Jones (which is essentially a turnover or missed FG). I hate to say it, but we may have just watched our best game of the season in terms of FT's. 80% for the game!!!!

    I believe Brad still needs to talk about some incredibly silly fouls in the last 7-8 minutes of the game. Smith and Jones made some bad fouls.

    With that said: the execution, physicality, ball movement, and pace control of the game was incredible. BU had more open shots than any game yet this season and hit 'em. Great performance!

    BG
     
  17. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    With the exception of Jones, I think today's FT shooting kind of showed how it's a mental thing. There was no pressure shooting FTs up by 20 points, and I think that's why they shot well. It's not a physical issue, its a psychological issue.
     
  18. Bulldog Grit

    Bulldog Grit New Member

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    NC 31 pts in first 30 mins
    NC 40 pts in last 10 mins (approximates)

    Almost a meltdown, but we settled down and won. Chase Stigall hit crucial shots, got rebounds, and hit 3 of 4 from the line.
     
  19. Butler1970

    Butler1970 New Member

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    The Dawgs played like 2 and 3 years ago with tough defense, ball movement and blocking out. Dang even Smith hustled and played tough!
     
  20. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member

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    Illinois is another good defensive team, but like North Carolina, they really don't like to extend a lot of pressure on the ball. They will have to adjust a little to do a better job at pressuring Clarke and Dunham than UNC did.
     

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