Do we dare start a Seton Hall Game Thread?

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by willisbrown, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    I mean, it's ok to be disappointed and frustrated to see a coach torpedo your favorite program. It's not fun watching something you love have interaction with matches and a gas can. Saying that, conversations I've had with many posters here, both back and forth on the board and DM (PMs, whatever) make me think that not too many literally rise with and go to bed with butler basketball. Many love it. But this board for the most part is level headed and doesn't allow a sport to dictate their overall happiness, joy, health, hard work....etc. Do fans get frustrated? Of course. Is it better to go to bed at night with a nice win tucked under the pillow? Surely. It's not wrong though to be passionate about the school you attended or the team you love and wanting it to succeed.

    The overall position is that people are very disappointed with the state of the program. And that's normal under these circumstances. Doesn't mean people aren't going to carry on with their lives. Frankly I don't know where those potshots are coming from.
     
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  2. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    I do not believe LaVall is a good bench coach in any means. But, I am tending to slide more to the "talent" being the issue even more than the coaching. And that lands at his doorstep just as in game results do. I think spectacular coaches like a Stevens or a Few or a Wright could do better with this roster. That's a given. But even so, it still isn't a tournament roster head to toe. And that's on LJ too...he can't get the players in here he needs to for this level.
     
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  3. TheDawgDub95

    TheDawgDub95 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I have been consistently astonished at how bad we are in the open court on the rare opportunities we have to break.

    Also, on the bad pass Nze made to Taylor in the Hall game, I was puzzled as to why Taylor was just running to the corner on a break opportunity vs sprinting toward and pressing the rim and then flaring out if he didn't receive a pass. Do you see the logic in just running (3/4 speed) to the corner bs pressing the rim and then flaring or screening for someone on a break opportunity?

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  4. Staxawax

    Staxawax Well-Known Member

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    The problem being no one knows who Brad Collier is!



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  5. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Lol damn you for asking this question.

    I can’t get you an exact answer because different points scored against different quality of defense would impact this, but I could get you really damn close.

    Okay to start with, I believe Ken Pom for his numbers does not use d2 games so we have to throw out those.

    First thing we need to do is establish our unadjusted efficiency.

    Without the d2 games we have 664 points in 709 poss. Good for 93.55 points per hundred possessions.

    Now our kp adjusted efficiency is 101.3. That means we can derive our level of competition multiplier to be 1.08. (We will multiply this by pts/poss).

    709 possessions will remain a constant.

    Currently we have 153 turnovers. Half of that is 76.5, so let’s dispose of 77 turnovers. That means we have to fill those 77 possessions with shots or free throws. (Note that if we had only 76 turnovers our to pct would be by FAR the best in country at 10.7-the best is Iowa at 12.1%)

    To figure out the points we are going to get we need to compute our value of points per shot, points per fta, and how many field goal attempts and how many free throw attempts those 77 new possessions would generate.

    What I did to get this was divide fga by total possessions less turnovers, and same thing for fta.

    I generated that we would generate 69 more field goal attempts and 21 more free throw attempts. Remember, you can get more than one fga per possession if you get an offensive rebound so these numbers make sense.

    We now have to assess points per fga and points from field goals (points less free throws made) and points per/fta. Points per fga is 1.12 and points per fta is just our ft% 68.9%

    This gets us 92 more points. 77 from the field and 15 from the line. Add these to our 664 points that we started with and we get a new total of 756.84 points.

    Divide 756.84 by our 709 possessions and we get an unadjusted efficiency of 1.06. Multiply that by our quality of competition multiplier and we get a new adjusted efficiency of 115.46. That would make us 11th in the country between Alabama and Arizona.

    This would make us a *very* similar team to Ohio State who is 17th in ken Pom.


    Tldr: the answer is we’d have the 11th best offense in the country and probably the 18th best team overall. Having this few turnovers is probably unrealistic though.


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  6. Cranjis McBasketball

    Cranjis McBasketball Well-Known Member

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    I agree we shouldn’t have to expect perfection from the underclassmen but most of the game had 4 seniors or super seniors on the court at the same time and we still couldn’t score.
    Nze/Golden/Bolden/Thompson/David played 135 min and vs 65 min played by Harris/Taylor/Lukosius. Our “active roster” is actually very experienced and still can’t score. In addition those same seniors committed 8 of our 13 turnovers so it’s not like our inexperience has been the root cause.





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  7. Shane Davis

    Shane Davis Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  8. Cranjis McBasketball

    Cranjis McBasketball Well-Known Member

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    Oh yes— because Christian David brings SOO much to the table and can bring that extra factor and je ne sais qoui


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  9. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Good points but you aren’t going to get much scoring out of Thompson or David ( no shot attempts) . And when your fifth year point guard turns the ball over 4 times this is what you get. The team shot 24% from three and just over 60% from two. We made 8-12 free throws. They made 18-19. They got 10 more points free. What would you do as a coach to guide the three point shots into the hoop?

    Case in point:

    In December Creighton beat Nova by 20 shooting 9-23 from three and 22-34 from two vs. Nova 4-23 from three and 17-40 from two. Was this because McDermott coached better than Jay Wright?

    Last night Nova beat Creighton by 34 by shooting 8-23 from three and 18-34 from two vs. Creighton 3-24 from three and 13-21 from two. Did Jay Wright become a master tactician since the December loss and McDermott didn’t adjust?

    Tony Hinkle always said the team that puts the ball into the hoop more will win. We had trouble shooting threes and not turning the ball over.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2022
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  10. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    He has a Wikipedia page.
     
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  11. Cranjis McBasketball

    Cranjis McBasketball Well-Known Member

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    That’s exactly my point— original poster claimed that we should go easy on our young pups for our turnovers and lack of scoring. The reality is most of our minutes, FGAs, and turnovers come from upperclassmen.

    What I wouldn’t do is fall right into SH’s plan of continuing to let Nze shoot 3s after he goes 0/6, has a hurt shoulder, and apparently a bum right wrist.


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  12. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    We’re actually not bad in transition; we’re actually quite good. That’s all the more reason I’m surprised.

    Teams will always have a “break series” which is a transition offense that gives multiple sequences of reads that you cycle through depending on what’s open, so it’s possible you are seeing that.


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  13. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think you go easy on anyone. They either bring it or they sit. I don’t think anyone didn’t try last game. Only serious problem I have is the turnovers.
     
  14. jkcdawgs

    jkcdawgs Well-Known Member

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    I would say standing in quicksand on offense qualifies as not trying.
     
  15. Staxawax

    Staxawax Well-Known Member

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  16. TheDawgDub95

    TheDawgDub95 Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    What metric(s) support us being quite good in transition? Can it(they) be refined for only the 7 high major games we've played?

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  17. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    Synergy. Points per possession.


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  18. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Also if anyone works in PE and or Ibanking hire me. I can do this **** w financial statements too.


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  19. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

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    Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    You had your shot!
     
  20. SCbulldogsfan4life

    SCbulldogsfan4life Well-Known Member

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    I partially agree with your point. It's not all on the Frosh and Sophs. Our upperclassmen aren't immune from turning the ball over, which LJ could take some of the blame for. After looking up some stats, I would summarize by saying that the bulk of TOs committed by our upperclassmen are from Thompson and Golden, and regarding those two:

    1. Thompson is right up there in terms of total TOs with some of the underclassmen, but think about how much more often the ball is in his hands and how the offense runs through him. His assist numbers are also much higher to counter a lot of those TOs.

    2. I did acknowledge in my previous post that Golden is a butterfingers. I'll admit that, but I also added that his TOs are a necessary evil due to the fact that he somewhat consistently puts the ball in the hoop. Sure, our other post players (excluding Nze) may not give up the ball as much, but these guys don't typically put points on the board, either. At the end of the day, you can't win if you can't score, even if you take really good care of the ball. Or our reserve post players just cause our guards and wings to turn the ball over more because of the pressure that transfers to them to create shots. Golden's TOs are, again, just the cost of doing business.

    I stand by my original point that our turnovers SHOULD clear up as our underclassmen gain more experience and confidence.
     
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