Game Thread: Butler vs Central Arkansas (11/12)

Discussion in 'Butler Basketball' started by ConnersvilleBulldog, Nov 12, 2021.

  1. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

    Money:
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    upload_2021-11-12_7-47-58.png vs [​IMG]




    KenPom Rankings
    339th - Overall - 62nd
    321st - Offense - 72nd
    345th - Defense - 56th
    27th - Tempo - 355th


    Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse
    Time: 6:30 PM Eastern
    TV: FS2
    Radio: WXNT 1430AM
    Live Stats

    Butler Roster
    Central Arkansas Roster
     

    Attached Files:

  2. seadawg

    seadawg Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    While they have size, BU could feast on turnovers.
     
  3. dawgman

    dawgman Member

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    I know nothing about Central Arkansas or Troy but I’d wager they are both better than IUPUI.
     
  4. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User

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    SLU beat them by 35, for whatever that's worth, so probably a very competitive game tonight.
     
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  5. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Will Groce be available tonight?*

    *Is this going to be the Jordan Tucker/Crossroads question of the 21/22 season?
     
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  6. Irishdawg

    Irishdawg Banned User

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    I'm still trying to figure out if Butler's win against an Evan Turner-less OSU counts or not.
     
  7. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Amazingly, Central Arkansas is probably worse.


    Sent from my iPhone, so it’s probably not written all that well
     
  8. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    A little research into Butler’s performance the last several years against awful teams (kenpom sub-250):

    In years where they’ve made the tournament or been tournament-level (2015-2018, 2020): Wins by margins of 42, 41, 42, 73, 16, 36, 37, 36, 18, 28, 61, 16, 26, 33, 18, 29. The average margin - even excluding the 73 point win because Citadel is a joke - was 32.

    In recent seasons where they have not been tournament quality (2014, 2019, 2021): Wins by margins of 31, 1, 15, 4. Average margin: 13.

    Margin matters. Tournament teams crush bad opponents. Winning by 16 has been the absolute worst performance we’ve had by a tournament level squad against a sub-250 opponent. The expected result is winning by 30. And IUPUI isn’t just sub-250; they’re nearly sub-350. So this is taking into account a lot of teams that were better than IUPUI.

    If Butler doesn’t crush Central Arkansas, it’s likely this team just stinks. (Unfortunately, it’s already likely.)


    Sent from my iPhone, so it’s probably not written all that well
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2021
  9. ConnersvilleBulldog

    ConnersvilleBulldog Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    I'm really hoping the results from the first game were first-game jitters. We started two freshmen, and a sophomore who hasn't experienced a full Hinkle. So that's my hope. A convincing win tonight will help back me off the ledge. Another single-digit game and I'll be concerned.
     
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  10. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    Had we blown the doors off of Tiffin and UIndy, I’d be less concerned. But it’s now 3 games where we’ve looked like a bad team.

    We’ll know more by Sunday. (And while I know AT is good and very important, he’s not the difference between winning by 9 and winning by 30, and again - see Tiffin and UIndy).
     
  11. willisbrown

    willisbrown Well-Known Member

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    Central Arkansas is located in a town called Conway, AR, Their nickname is the Bears for males and Sugar Bears for females. Basketball was a D2 team and in July 2006 they started the transition into D1 for athletics. They are a member of the ASUN. Before the ASUN, which they just joined, they were a member of the Southland Conference. Most famous alum is Scottie Pippen. They have roughly 12,000 students.

    Troy is a very rural school located in the small town of Troy , AL. For much of its existence it was called Troy St with many other campuses throughout Alabama. But in 2005 they all merged and became one, changing the name to simply Troy University. Their nickname is Trojans. They are a member of the Sun Belt Conference for all sports. Last enrollment figures were just over 18,000 students. Very pretty place if you are into more rural universities.

    They both blow at basketball but we kinda do too so...hope that helps.
     
  12. Shimmy

    Shimmy Active Member

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    Yeah, personally I'm not ready to call this season DOA. If we're still struggling against bad teams once our *starting point guard* and Groce are in the mix, I'll dramatically reduce my expectations. Until then, a win is a win.

    As has been pointed out, plenty of objectively talented teams have opened with less than encouraging final scores. I don't know how many of them are also down four key players, but I'd guess the number is probably zero.

    I'll agree with Hinkle that this perpetual undermanned state we've been playing in has grown beyond frustrating. I just don't get the eagerness to bail on this season when we haven't even seen the full team work together yet. A bad loss or two could certainly end up tanking any postseason aspirations, but it's a long season with plenty of opportunity for growth and improvement.

    Sent from my SM-G973U using Butler Hoops mobile app
     
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  13. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    My counter to this would be that teams like Hofstra and Akron are *significantly* better than IUPUI. They’d each be favored against Evansville, for instance, who just beat IUPUI by 20 last night.

    And I will definitely also argue that Tate is not a key player for this season. We have no good reason to think he won’t be bad when he comes back (again, at least for this season). Thompson is very important, but he’s not 20+ expected margin points important (if he was, he’d be one of the greatest college basketball player of all time). And we simply don’t know about Groce and Hodges yet, really. Hodges was bad last year, full stop. But I’m optimistic he’ll be better when (IF!) he’s healthy this year.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2021
  14. seadawg

    seadawg Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    For some reason BU teams under LJ seems to play according to the level of the competition. That does need to change...
     
  15. Ster8462

    Ster8462 Well-Known Member

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    So as a former Butler coach said (I believe it was the coach that took us to back to back Natl. Champion runner ups). He said you are never as good or as bad as what you looked like in the last game you played.

    I was there and thought we played about as bad as we could. If that is the team that takes the floor night in night out then we are headed to a win total in the single digits.

    With that said I don’t think we will see that poor of a performance more than once or twice more this year.

    We need 21-12 record to get comfortably in the Tourney we all want to get to. So the thing that game against IUPUI did was get us one win closer to 21.

    The game did make me feel that both Taylor and Luko will contribute and possibly even more important that if Groce’s injury lingers that Wilmoth is ready to contribute this year 20 minutes a night at the 4/5 slot.

    I still see this team as a team likely to win 19-23 games in regular season and conference tourney. Good news currently is unlike the ACC and PAC 12 who have had 3 losses to mid-majors the Big East hasn’t had any. If we are the 3rd best conference in the Nation it is probable that 6 and maybe even a 7th Big East team get asked to The Big Dance.

    Let’s not always be Negative and assume the worst from 1/31 of a sample size!!!
     
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  16. WDLTH

    WDLTH Member VIP Member

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    Looking at the roster they have a player that should be familiar with us. Darious Hall played on the Arkansas team we beat in 2018 (he played 22 minutes), then transferred to Depaul and played against us for 2 years. Apparently he's at Central Arkansas now.
     
  17. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    I tend to err more with Hinkle here.

    We haven’t played a team yet where at any point, we shouldnt/don’t have at least 5 out of the best 6 basketball players on the floor-virtually at all times.

    I didn’t see the exhibitions so I don’t know what we looked like-but it sounds like it was pretty similar to Tuesday. We now have a pattern of not only looking bad to the eye test, but have also yet to win a game by double digits. This despite two games against non d1 teams and one d1 team that is probably worse than the other two.

    We might get a lot better throughout the season.

    At this point, however, I don’t see any way to conclude anything besides that we’re just not very good right now.





    Sent from my iPhone using Butler Hoops
     
  18. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member VIP Member

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    I thought we looked much, much better in the exhibitions than we did in the opener. By a very wide margin really.
     
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  19. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    If that’s true, it’s really more of a testament to how bad we were against IUPUI than anything else. I mean, we beat two D2 teams by a few possessions.


    Sent from my iPhone, so it’s probably not written all that well
     
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  20. Lukas Harkins

    Lukas Harkins Well-Known Member

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    Just a few comments:

    1. Hey, my patron-only pregame piece is up: https://www.patreon.com/posts/58621755.
    2. 100% agree that Butler looked way better in the exhibitions
    3. Could Butler be bad? Yeah, but let's give them a chance to prove it haha. I'm still optimistic, but I understand other's opposing views.

    4. ANYONE WANT TWO TICKETS FOR TONIGHT? Don't kill me for this, but my fiancee and I are not going to be physically at the next three games out of an abundance of COVID caution with our wedding being next weekend. I'll still be covering the games from home and such. With such short notice, wanted to post on the board for if anyone wanted to go tonight. We have two seats in section 202. Pictures are on my twitter from the last couple of games. Direct message me either here or on Twitter if you want them and I'll transfer.

    update: tickets gone
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2021
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