James Bolden - 2015 Point Guard (WVU)

Discussion in 'Recruiting Archive' started by Jared Grubbs, May 2, 2013.

  1. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

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    no it doesn’t. This would literally be impossible. The ap poll ranks 25 teams. Ken Pom ranks all of them. You’re insinuating it uses data that doesn’t exist.

    It uses data for returning and incoming players.


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  2. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Straight from his website:

    When will you release your preseason ratings?
    Usually this occurs around the time the preseason AP poll is released in late October. Why the wait? There are a few reasons. From a practical standpoint, I like to turn the switch on the new season when I have every team's final schedule. From a psychological standpoint, I'd just prefer everyone wait until later in the offseason before sharing opinions, especially for teams not captured in early top 25's. Independent opinions are more useful than ones where everyone is peeking at somebody else's work.

    When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?

    As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.
     
  3. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    holy crap. It’s literally the exact opposite of what you said. He waits until the ap polls are out so they his rankings don’t influence them, not the other way around.

    You really can’t make this stuff up.


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  4. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    The point of this discussion continues to be that every metric is manipulated based on someone's opinion of their own algorithm. You think we're a Top 30 team because we started in #35. I think we're not close to Top 30 because we finished in #61 (or lower if we get beat tonight) and that has eliminated any preconceived input from Ken.

    It's metrics. You can make the data say anything you want it to.
     
  5. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    He releases his predetermined rankings at the same time as the AP poll. Yes, I misspoke about the scheduling. Yes, it doesn't change the fact that you are ready to pounce on anyone who makes the tiniest mistake even when you yourself didn't understand his preseason rankings impact rankings all the way into January.
     
  6. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    That is neither true in any way shape or form, nor has it been the point at any part of the conversation. Ken’s opinion has zero bearing on the rankings. That is why we have these and rely on them more than we do polls such as the Ap.

    Your willful ignorance is truly astonishing.


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  7. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I mean there’s nothing at all suggesting I didn’t understand that part, I simply didn’t comment on it because it was entirely irrelevant to my statement that our preseason ranking was in the 30’s.

    It’s not that I pounce on small mistakes, it’s that if you’re not posting worthless links, your posts frequently contain glaring errors that often defy common sense.


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  8. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Great. I think were lucky to be considered a Top 60+ team.

    You think we're "very close" a Top 30 team, which would probably put as a 7 or 8 seed on Sunday. Let's see if BU shows up on the Selection Show genius.
     
  9. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
    $6,376
    As do yours. I'll just unfollow you again. It's not worth my time as you have all the answers.
     
  10. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I never said that.

    You’re freaking out because I’m presenting information that conflicts with your preconceived notions and you’re trying to rationalize that difference. That’s called cognitive dissonance.

    Additionally, the difference between 60 and 30 is approximately 3.5 points per game in terms of margin. While it is entirely subjective how challenging it is to close that margin, not a lot has to change to close that margin.


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  11. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Wrong.

    Lie.

    Adios genius.
     
  12. bumba

    bumba Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    "We were projected to finish like 35 at the start of the season in kenpom. We are very close to a top 30 team." = Your exact quote.

    No one is freaking out. Someone is calling you out because everyone has opinions that are incorrect according to you, you're not close to as smart as you think you are and you have been a condescending pr*ck to many people on this forum.
     
  13. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    If you believe me to wrong, I’ve deleted no posts in this thread. Find some evidence of me discussing the carryover effect into January prior to you claiming I don’t understand it, and find me the part of the formula that Ken Pomeroy’s opinion influences and I’ll happily come to a consensus. The point of having computer rankings is that somebody can’t have have a “correct” opinion on 350 teams, so we need a ranking that removes subjectivity. Inserting his opinion into the formula would defeat the purpose. I don’t expect you to embrace that, but it is the truth.

    Until then, I’d appreciate if you stop making false attributions to me.


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  14. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I never said we were a top 30 team and would be in the tournament. I think that’s pretty clearly what I was referencing.

    I’ve contributed a lot of original thoughts and ideas to this forum. The things that I say very rarely end up being completely off base. I don’t care to sit around and think about how smart I am or am not because it offers no value to do so.

    When I call people out it’s because they’re presenting an idea that is either objectively wrong, or seemingly extreme misdiagnosis of events. You happen to present objectively wrong information as fact quite frequently including virtually everything you say regarding statistics.

    You admittedly don’t care to bother with computer rankings or new school stats, yet you present yourself as an authority on them. It’s entirely nonsensical, and if you don’t want to be called out on them, have some ounce of ability for self reflection and realize your own limitations.


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  15. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Glad I had a life today
     
  16. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    I'm truly, truly amazed you offered that as support for your argument above.
     
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  17. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Only if you're manipulating the inputs. If you could ever offer a reasonable argument as to why Kenpom or Synergy data doesn't tell us the full story (which is exactly what we're always trying to analyze when we get that kind of data), that's a discussion worth having. But it's absurd to dismiss all metrics simply because some metrics use inaccurate data and some may arguably use the wrong data.

    If your position is that Kenpom or Synergy use inaccurate data, good luck with that (though there are times when Kenpom is off a point or a rebound here or there). If your position is that Kenpom uses the wrong formula, I'm all ears if you have a reasonable basis in explaining how it fails (though if you just straight-up make sh*t up, like arguing Kenpom uses AP data, be prepared to be ridiculed). If your position is that the Synergy data is off because it doesn't account for certain things (e.g., that player X usually plays with player Y, and that's why player X has a favorable +/-), again, I'm all ears.

    But saying, without qualification, "you can make the data say anything you want" is just mindbogglingly stupid. It just is.
     
  18. I Am Butler

    I Am Butler Well-Known Member

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    I've been on hiatus from this forum and popping back in makes me realize why I haven't missed it. Carry on.
     
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  19. Sidd Finch

    Sidd Finch Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Talk of being a Top 10 team next year (and, yes, I understand it was a conditional assessment) is amazing. That is some major league optimism. Like Rob Reiner's mother said in When Harry Met Sally, "I'll have what he's having."
     
  20. dawgs2014

    dawgs2014 Well-Known Member

    Money:
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    Of course. It relies on Tucker being a better offensive player next year than Kamar, which is a HUGE jump. Is it improbable? Yes. Is it unreasonable? No.


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