NCAA Tournament conversation

Discussion in 'Around the League' started by ThaddeusB, Mar 17, 2016.

  1. PSUButlerFan

    PSUButlerFan Well-Known Member

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    Haha wow Purdue! What a hilarious epic choke. This is great... I didn't want Butler to see them again.

    Now if Butler can somehow beat UVA, they will get ISU/UALR.
     
  2. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    You couldn't be more right. However the NCAA and CBS want the Syracuse, Michigan and Vanderbilts for the viewership and money.
     
  3. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Come on Crean lose one for the BIG.
     
  4. ndfan1993

    ndfan1993 Active Member

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    We can only hope.
     
  5. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    +1000


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  6. Hinkle

    Hinkle Well-Known Member

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    LETS GO BIG EAST


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  7. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    Florida Gulf Coast kept it even for a half, but UNC appears to be pulling away in the second half. As strange as it sounds, it is actually quite remarkable a 1 seed has never lost a first round game. According to the computers and betting lines, the 16s have between 1% and 2% to win each game (with a few exceptions each way in previous years). Even at 99%, the chance of going 124-0 (the record entering the 2016 tournament) is just 28%. At a more realistic 98.5%, it falls to 15%.
     
  8. ndfan1993

    ndfan1993 Active Member

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    ...and that is why humans play games.
     
  9. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member VIP Member

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    Computers usually overrate the chance of an upset in the tournament though. They've occurred at a significantly lower clip than one would project, even though the event is known for its upsets. I'd guess that when the stakes are this high the top team tends to be more focused than if it were a meaningless regular season game.


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  10. cornette33

    cornette33 Well-Known Member

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    Kris Dunn just admitted when he was young he stole from ppl.
     
  11. ndfan1993

    ndfan1993 Active Member

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    Excited for this Wichita State/Arizona game.
     
  12. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    Perhaps. OTOH, 3 or 4 of them have come down to the last shot. If one of those goes the other way, 16 seeds are basically at expectation. That suggests to me it is mostly luck that 1's are 127-0 instead of 126-1.

    Even if computers are off on upsets in general (not sure if that is true or not), I guarantee the betting lines aren't. In general, ML action is highly biased toward the favorite on the "obvious" games (mostly from people parlaying a bunch of "sure things" together). No way the lines allow you to blindly bet the big favs and make a profit in the long run.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2016
  13. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    way late here, and I love upsets as much as anyone, but Purdue got jobbed at the very end. That guy was fouled hardcore going in for the layup and there was no call.
     
  14. ThaddeusB

    ThaddeusB Active Member

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    Me too. Rooting for another first four to final four run. :) WSU is very very good, so its not as unlikely as it may seem.
     
  15. WMUDog

    WMUDog Well-Known Member

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    Setan Hall game moved back to 10:45. Ouch. Gonna be dragging tomorrow
     
  16. Jared Grubbs

    Jared Grubbs Administrator Staff Member VIP Member

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    I remember at some point in the past reading about how the idea that upsets occur more often in the tournament is a myth, and that they historically have occurred less frequently than one would actually expect. There are just so many high profile games that the upsets get more attention in the tournament. The only seed line that upsets occur more frequently than expected is the 5/12 game. I'll try and dig it up later.
     
  17. 740OHIOBulldog

    740OHIOBulldog Active Member

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    Wichita State plays defense the way we used to play it under Stevens. I wouldn't mind having Greg Marshall. I am not bashing Holt, like him a lot, it's just a different brand of defense and togetherness with guys like Stevens and Marshall.
     
  18. Insane Dawg

    Insane Dawg Well-Known Member

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    Officials aren't calling obvious fouls.
     
  19. 740OHIOBulldog

    740OHIOBulldog Active Member

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    They're going to go to the Elite 8, maybe the Final Four, this team reminds me so much of Butler 2011. The difference between this year's team which makes me nervous for Virginia and beyond is the defense, compared to during the Stevens era.
     
  20. readyletsgo

    readyletsgo Well-Known Member VIP Member

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    Let's go providence!!
     

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